US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un have a potential to make history when they meet for talks this spring to discuss prospects for a denuclearised Korean Peninsula. Not so long ago Trump called to the North Korean leader as “Little Rocket Man” and Kim once referred to Trump as a “dotard”.
Nevertheless, two leaders widely seen as volatile, self-absorbed and belligerent have agreed to do something no other sitting American president and North Korean leader ever have done – sit face-to-face and talk seriously about nuclear weapons. As a carrot, Kim has dangled a commitment to halt nuclear and missile testing ahead of the talks, which are slated for the end of May.
Why now? It may be that Kim feels the vise of amped-up economic sanctions and sees in Trump an American leader who, unlike his predecessors, has been exceedingly blunt with threats to “totally destroy” North Korea. Equally likely, however, is Kim’s calculation that Trump would agree to a meeting because, well, he’s Trump: a president supremely confident in his negotiating skills, a leader with the hubris to think he can get done what other presidents couldn’t, and to do it the Trump way – on his own.
Kim also comes to the table with a hand that his father and grandfather didn’t have: missiles capped with nuclear warheads. His predecessors also sought newfound legitimacy through a meeting with an American president, but they didn’t have the arsenal that Kim now has. Like his father and grandfather, Kim yearns to be perceived as a leader on equal footing with the American commander-in-chief. What better way to get there than a sit-down with Trump?
While the meeting would be unprecedented, any flirtatious Pyongyang offer to denuclearise isn’t. In 2005, North Korea pledged to abandon its nuclear weapons programme during the “six-party talks.” Three years later, Pyongyang restarted its programme.
The hasty timetable could also prove counterproductive. The administration has just two months to prepare. The State Department’s chief North Korea negotiator, Joseph Yun, has resigned, and the administration has baulked at nominating another experienced negotiator, Victor Cha, the ambassador to South Korea, The New York Times reported.
None of that may matter to Trump, with his penchant for winging it. But his assent to a meeting is indeed a gamble, and the stakes couldn’t be much higher. Trump has already made it clear that the only acceptable outcome is denuclearisation. Will Kim be willing to relinquish the very nuclear weapons that give him so much clout? If talks end and Trump doesn’t get what he wants, Kim will walk away with strengthened legitimacy – and a nuclear weapons programme with American cities as primary targets. Trump will walk away boasting of his reasonableness in meeting with Kim. That could give him flexibility for whatever comes in the future – such as a pre-emptive US strike if North Korea becomes more menacing.
Trump crafted a campaign persona as a dealmaker. Up until now, his foreign policy track record says otherwise. Meeting with Kim gives him a chance to prove his critics wrong. One hopes he can. The likely alternative is a return to the threat of nuclear war.
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