Avocado toast and juice bars are all the rage for American hipsters, foodies and millennials.
And they have Nafta to thank – at least in part. The accord has brought an abundance of fresh produce to US grocers. Mexico shipped $10.5bn of fruit and vegetables to its northern neighbour in 2016. And food trade has boomed in the other direction too. But, at least when you measure in terms of nutrition rather than dollars, Mexicans appear to be getting the worse end of the deal – and gaining weight as a result.
That’s the finding of a study by Lorenzo Rotunno and two fellow economists published by VoxEU. They examined the effects of trade on dietary habits in Mexico, and found a direct correlation between worsening public health indicators and the growing quantities of foods such as corn, soybean, pork and dairy products imported under Nafta.
“The exposure to unhealthy foods coming from the US has been an important determinant in the rise of obesity in Mexico,” Rotunno, an assistant professor of economics at Aix-Marseille University in France, said in an interview.
The economists found that growth in imports of unhealthy foods is faster than for healthy ones. They made the distinction by applying the guidelines published by the US Department of Agriculture, which advises Americans to increase consumption of some foods and cut back on others.
Mexico’s trade opening dates back to the 1980s, and accelerated when the North American Free Trade Agreement came into effect in 1994. The recent study found that in about two decades since then, Mexico has seen obesity rates rise some 15%. The research is mostly based on data for adult females, because it’s more complete than for other population groups.
And during the Nafta years, Mexico has overtaken the US to seize an unwanted crown. It now has more overweight or obese people, as a share of the population, than any other member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a club that includes more than 30 major economies.
Food trade is among the many sticking points in negotiations to overhaul Nafta, the latest round of which is due to start in Mexico City next week.
President Donald Trump’s main focus has been on manufacturing: he blames the accord for lost factory jobs. But Trump has to keep one eye on America’s farmers too. Many of them backed him in the election – and they’re solid supporters of Nafta. Withdrawal from the pact would be “catastrophic for farmers, based on the fact that Mexico is our number one export market for corn,” Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley said last week.
So the US is pushing for new terms that would enable it to expand agricultural exports to Mexico. Meanwhile in Mexico, one politician is loudly demanding less of them.
Leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador regularly hits out at the terms of food trade with the US, saying impoverished Mexican farmers have been driven from their land. He’s calling for a rethink of the national diet, so that Mexicans eat more food from their own country.
It seems to be working. Amlo, as he’s known, is ahead in almost every poll for the July vote – so it’s possible he could be the man who has to sign off on any new Nafta.
An Uber Eats bike messenger, left, passes shoppers and pedestrians near the main square in Mexico City (file). Food trade is among the many sticking points in negotiations to overhaul Nafta, the latest round of which is due to start in Mexico City next week.
