There were concerns Washington could misinterpret the message when Kim said he would “watch a little more” how the US acted in the region before deciding whether to go ahead with a plan to launch missiles over Japan aimed at the seas around the US territory of Guam.
In some of the US media, that statement was portrayed as a withdrawal of the Guam plan in the face of threats of overwhelming retaliatory force from Donald Trump and US Defence Secretary James Mattis.
The North Korean state news service KCNA reported Kim’s visit on Monday to the Korean People’s Army’s missile forces in which he reviewed the plan to fire four intermediate range missiles over Japan to land in the waters 30 to 40km off Guam.
Mattis has said that the US would shoot down any missiles heading directly for Guam, but said it was up to Trump to decide how to respond if they landed in the ocean near the island as Pyongyang has threatened.
Having approved the Guam plan, Kim is quoted as saying he would watch “a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees”.
This is the best chance that Donald Trump will ever have to limit North Korea’s missile programmes.
Kim’s statement echoes previous messaging from Pyongyang in referring directly to practice sorties over South Korea by US B1-B heavy bombers based in Guam.
However, in a separate KCNA statement, the regime also warned the US about its major joint military exercises with South Korean forces scheduled to start next Monday.
“The US should think twice about the consequences,” the statement said, before going on to describe the plans for the Guam missile launch.
It is not clear if the separate statement suggested next week’s exercises could also trigger the launch of the North Korean missiles. The statement does not explicitly link the two, and it is not attributed to Kim or a senior official, but just to KCNA.
Pyongyang, it would seem, has signalled there is room for negotiation.
Nowhere in that statement does it say that the US has to cancel exercises. North Korea has always said that in the past. There are other possible signs from North Korea that it was open to talks. The regime has not test-fired a missile since July 28, while Kim has made the Guam missile launch contingent on US action.
There is a backchannel of communications between US and North Korean diplomats at the UN in New York, which the Trump administration has used to discuss US detainees held by Pyongyang and reportedly other, broader issues too.
Among the issues on the table for discussion could be the scale, scope and location of next week’s exercises and further B1-B overflights. There has not been a B1-B sortie out of Guam over South Korea since August 7.
One possible deal could involve a quid pro quo.
There could an agreement with North Korea that it does not carry out missile flights over South Korea or Japan and US agrees not to fly within a certain proximity of the North Korean border.
There is no guarantee that the North Koreans would agree to such a limited confidence building measures. They could demand the cancellation of next week’s war games altogether, which is something Washington is unlikely to concede. But the signal being sent by Pyongyang is that while it is still prepared to carry out its Guam missile plan it has left the door clearly open for negotiations.
This is the best chance that Trump will ever have to limit North Korea’s missile programmes.