Almost six months into Donald Trump’s (pictured) presidency, Americans are feeling fairly optimistic about their jobs, the strength of the US economy, and their own fortunes. That should be welcome news for the president, except for one thing: The public’s confidence largely appears to be in spite of Trump, not because of him.
The latest Bloomberg National Poll shows 58% of Americans believe they’re moving closer to realising their own career and financial aspirations, tied for the highest recorded in the poll since the question was first asked in February 2013.
A majority expect the US stock market to be higher by the end of this year, while 30% anticipate a decline. Yet they don’t necessarily think Trump deserves credit for rising markets and falling unemployment.
Just 40% of Americans approve of the job he is doing in the White House, and 55% now view him unfavourably, up 12 points since December. Sixty-one percent say the nation is headed down the wrong path, also up 12 points since December.
Trump scored his best numbers on his handling of the economy, but even there the news for him isn’t great. Less than half of Americans – 46% – approve of Trump’s performance on the economy; 44% disapprove. He gets slightly better marks for job creation, with 47% approving.
“If you take the president’s scores out of this poll, you see a nation increasingly happy about the economy,” said pollster J Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey. “When Trump’s name is mentioned, the clouds gather.”
In nearly every measure of his performance, the poll indicates that Trump’s tumultuous presidency is not wearing well with the public. A 56% majority say they’re more pessimistic about Trump because of his statements and actions since the election. That’s a huge swing since December when 55% said his statements and actions made them more optimistic about him.
The public has grown more sceptical that Trump will deliver on some of his most ambitious campaign promises. Two-thirds don’t think he’ll succeed in building a wall along the Mexican border during his first term. More than half say he won’t be able to revive the coal industry.
A majority – 54% – believe Trump will manage to create trade deals more beneficial to the US, but that’s down from 66% in December. There’s division on whether he’ll be able to bring a substantial number of jobs back to America, or significantly reform the tax code.
And despite his assurances that he and congressional Republicans will repeal Obamacare and replace it with a “beautiful” new healthcare bill, 64% of Americans say they disapprove of his handling of the issue. That’s especially significant because healthcare topped unemployment, terrorism and immigration as the issue poll respondents chose as the most important challenge facing the nation right now.
There are at least two areas where Americans say they believe Trump will deliver: Almost two-thirds say he will make significant cuts in government regulation, though it’s not clear whether most think that’s a good or bad thing. Likewise, 53% believe he will succeed in deporting millions of immigrants living in the US illegally.
The public is also sceptical about Trump’s abilities as a world leader, with 58% saying they disapprove of the way he handles relations with other countries and 46% disappointed in his actions on trade agreements.
Americans are more pessimistic about foreign policy than they were in December. Fifty-five percent now say they expect dealings with Germany to get worse during the next four years, up 22 points. The share of poll respondents who anticipate worsening relations with the UK, Mexico, Cuba and Russia also increased by double digits.
The public is also wary of Trump’s motives in his negotiations with other countries. Just 24% said they were “very confident” that Trump puts the nation’s interests ahead of his businesses or family when dealing with foreign leaders. Americans have plenty of other worries about the world. Majorities believe it’s realistic that terrorists will launch a major attack on US soil (68%) and that North Korea will launch a nuclear weapon aimed at the US (55%).
Trump has called the expanding investigations into possible connections between his presidential campaign and Russia a “witch hunt.” But the public isn’t necessarily taking his side. Since the president’s decision to oust former FBI Director James Comey, the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s standing has improved. It’s now viewed favourably by 68%, up 10 points since December. Comey is viewed positively by 43%, while 36% see him negatively.
Meanwhile, most Americans don’t share the president’s apparent soft spot for Vladimir Putin: 65% view the Russian president negatively – and 53% say it’s realistic to think Russian hacking will disrupt future US elections.
There is one notable bright spot for Trump. Though views of the White House as an institution are at the lowest level ever recorded by the poll – with 48% now viewing it unfavourably, up 21 points since December – Trump’s voters are still sticking with him. Among those who cast ballots for him, 89% still say he’s doing a good job.
The telephone poll of 1,001 American adults has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, higher among subgroups. It was conducted July 8-12 by Iowa-based Selzer & Co.
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