A Conservative landslide in the general election would see the Labour party concentrated almost exclusively in cities, with a quarter of its MPs based in London constituencies and Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters more likely to retain seats than those who have opposed the Labour leader, according to a new report.
A Labour party reduced by 100 seats – a pessimistic scenario – would see the party mainly representing inner cities and the most deprived areas, with the West Midlands losing two-thirds of its MPs.
The analysis by Policy Network, the centrist thinktank headed by Peter Mandelson, also found that in the case of serious losses in the polls on June 8, Labour would hold just four seats in areas with lower than average levels of deprivation, down from 21.
About 60% of the party’s MPs are currently based in major towns or cities. Were Labour to lose 100 of its most vulnerable seats, the party’s number of rural seats would halve, from eight to four.
The research also found that the more seats Labour lost in the election, the greater the proportion of Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters in the parliamentary Labour party would be. Were Labour to lose 100 seats, the number of MPs who have voiced discontent with the leadership would be reduced by half, from 175 to just 92.
Over three-quarters of the MPs who have been consistent Corbyn supporters, 24 out of 31, would retain their seats.
The thinktank’s research was produced by analysing the 100 Labour-held seats with the narrowest majorities, modelling three scenarios where Labour lost 20, 50 or 100 of its most vulnerable seats. The Fabian Society, a group affiliated to Labour, has predicted a loss of 40 seats, but warned that number could be higher.
Charlie Cadywould, the author of the research, said: “The worse Labour does, the stronger the Corbynistas are likely to become. Significantly, Labour’s claim to be a party for the whole United Kingdom is at risk.”