Iran is hard at work gaining a foothold in the global energy market, and it’s not letting US President Donald Trump’s confrontational tone stop it from trying.
Political rhetoric is unlikely to turn into tangible impediments for Iran’s s ambition to join Russia and Norway in the ranks of major gas exporters, according to Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia.
The nation has about $7tn worth of gas reserves sitting underground, based on European benchmark prices, and its doors are open to those who will help it cash in on the fortune. Zamaninia thinks those sorts of figures mean the business case for Iranian energy is too tempting for the world to pass up, even as its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Trump exchange barbs.
The country may need as much as $100bn to develop its gas business, but estimates vary widely. Majors from Royal Dutch Shell to Total agreed to assess oil or gas fields in Iran last year, but no deals have been signed yet. Total plans to sign a contract if Iran respects an international nuclear treaty and if the US sticks to it, chief executive officer Patrick Pouyanne said last Tuesday in an interview. Austria’s OMV AG has said Iran’s gas market is “a big opportunity.”
“There are concerns and the international capital is scarce, but our projects and our environment are so attractive that we don’t think we will face a great deal of difficulty,” Zamaninia said in an interview at the recent CWC Iran LNG & Gas Summit in Frankfurt. “We don’t think that the new administration in the US will pose a big problem in this department, in the oil and gas business.”
While Iran has the largest commercial volumes of natural gas in the world, the country is a smaller exporter than Bolivia. But that may soon change. Last year, US President Barack Obama lifted a decade of economic sanctions in exchange for greater access to facilities Iran may use to make nuclear weapons. Growing populations and economies in nearby countries, including Turkey and India, mean gas demand is also set to rise.
But there’s also reason for doubt. Competition from other suppliers is intensifying, European prices have dropped 25% in the past five years and Iran consumes almost as much as it pumps. There’s an election around the corner and political challenges have forced the country to delay some gas projects for years.
“Iran’s got just a huge amount of potential but I don’t see anything major happening for some time,” said Christopher Haines, head of oil and gas at BMI Research in London. “We need a lot more trust between operators and the government and confidence in the political environment.”
Then there’s Trump. Through an executive order, the new US president banned Iranians from entering the country for 90 days, citing the threat of terrorism, though that order was blocked by a court. He also put Iran “on notice” after it performed a missile test on February 29, without clarifying what that meant.
International politicking is delivering a “temporary hiccup” to investment, but Iran’s gas prize is big enough to motivate people to overcome their differences, Zamaninia said. The country has 56 gas fields with reserves of 33.7tn cubic meters, of which 40 are still undeveloped as a result of sanctions.
Hamid Soorghali, an energy analyst at Iran-focused consultant Energy Pioneers Ltd in London, said that is probably true, and the country remains attractive to Russian and Chinese investors.
“Trump will not have an impact on this macro trend, but rather can only affect the quality of achieved goals,” he said by e-mail. “Internal ambiguities and politicizations, such as over the price of gas for exports, can have more effect.”
With additional technology, Iran could export as much as 6bn cubic feet (170mn cubic metres) of gas a day by 2030, mostly to Mideast countries, according to Siamak Adibi, head of Middle East gas at consultant FGE. That would make it the fifth-largest gas exporter in the world behind Russia and Norway, Canada and Qatar, according to 2015 figures in the BP Statistical Review.
Iran needs $70bn to develop proposed oil and gas projects, and half of that could come through in a “few short months,” according to Zamaninia. The first pipeline to Iraq is “ready” to ship natural gas and a second to Basra is expected to start in two or three months, Zamaninia said. Haines of BMI Research agreed that timeline was possible.
“Iran has huge potential to export due to its resources,” said Adibi. “The question is only where the market is.”
A gas flame is seen through a bus window in the South Pars gas field facilities in the southern Iranian port of Assaluyeh (file). The country may need as much as $100bn to develop its gas business, but estimates vary widely.
