The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the main opposition Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) are currently locked in a battle of attrition over the ongoing Supreme Court case pertaining to the so-called Panama Papers.
Each party claims to be winning the case at the end of each hearing session, but with lack of any hard knuckle evidence on the part of either party, a straightforward verdict looks well-nigh impossible to conceive – as observed during the proceedings more than once by the judges.
But while the court room drama drags on, there is a clear political tone to the case pertaining to the opposition’s allegations that the properties and offshore wealth acquired by the prime minister’s children is ill-gotten. It was always going to be a tall order to establish the case given the very intrinsic nature of offshore accounts.
Therefore, it is interesting to note how the two sides are heavily engaged in beating the drums and making counter-claims of going home victorious when the final verdict arrives.
The PTI is in a war mode evident in how it continues to harp on the threat of taking to the streets as a “matter of right” despite having publicly stated its position to accept whatever verdict is reached by the apex court. This, more than anything else, augments the general impression that the underlying motive – even if the opposition manages to secure a highly improbable verdict in its favour – is unmistakably political.
But the ruling party as well leaves no stone unturned to bludgeon the opposition in a now familiar refrain which sections of the intelligentsia have decried as an unbecoming practice. The basic critique is that the defence is best left to the PM’s children or their legal counsel. Regardless, an assembly of mostly state ministers turning up at the official Press Information Department almost every day of the hearing to defend the accused and throw a counterpunch is a regular feature. All this despite the official claim that nowhere is the prime minister’s name mentioned in the Panama Papers!
Once again, this reinforces the impression that this really is about creating or deflating – depending on which side one is on – a political pitch for the next general elections due in 2018.
Even though there is more than a year to go before the polls – if these are held on schedule – a victory for either party will give it a spectacular, and perhaps, even decisive edge.
For argument’s sake, if the PTI manages to eke out favourable verdict against the run of play, it has the inherent potential to upset the apple cart of the ruling party despite the overwhelming advantage it will still enjoy in terms of sheer numbers in the parliament. The reason for this is the complete stranglehold Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family have over the party. A setback could impact the whole party structure and its poll prospects. This explains why Imran Khan, the PTI chairman, has invested heavily in the case and which, on the flip side, many pundits see, is probably, the last roll of the dice for him.
However, if the Sharif family survives the Panama case – highly probable in the absence of any concrete evidence against it thus far – there’s more than a fair chance the party will romp home in the next elections with Sharif in a strong position to better his already record third stint in office. There will be much for Sharif to lean on in economic terms, especially with the prized multi-billion dollar China Pakistan Economic Corridor taking hold. Most international outlook about the country’s economy remains bullish. On top of this, he will have more than a year at his disposal to nail the election beat.
But will it primarily be a two-party race in the lead-up to what promises to be the most intense fare in Pakistan’s electoral history? Herein lies the most absorbing part of the frenzied battle of wits.
In the high-stake brinkmanship on offer, most political observers agree it is never advisable to leave out from the equation Asif Zardari, the former president, who, effectively controls the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) as its co-chairman despite branding it in his 28-year-old son Bilawal Bhutto’s image, who is the party chairman.
The PPP has, in the last few months, made a concerted effort to re-enter the fray by pitching the fresh-faced Bilawal with the intent to drive the poll campaign on his lineage - he is the grandson of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Pakistan’s first popularly elected prime minister, and his mother Benazir Bhutto was also twice elected prime minister before her tragic assassination in 2007. The PPP returned to power the following year riding on a wave of sympathy.
Since losing power in 2013, the PPP has ceded ground to the PTI as the main opposition despite its better seat count in the national parliament. Going by most reasonable counts, the PPP will be hard-pressed to regain old primacy given the flawed divide apparent in the party leadership with Zardari continuing to enjoy the stranglehold, which leaves his son with little room to justify himself as the “new leader”.
If Sharif comes out unscathed from the Panama case, it will be interesting to see what course the Zardari-led PPP takes. Will he then join hands with Imran Khan – provided the PTI is amenable to the idea as well – to challenge the PML-N or will he go solo, which will leave him with two opponents in the PML-N and PTI, which could potentially, push the party into political irrelevance?
But what if Khan stays true to his hitherto one dimensional approach to politics and stacks up against the old order: the PML-N and PPP? Ideally, the PML-N would want both of its opponents to go their separate ways in the hope to score big on the back of a ‘divide-and-rule’ formula. Whatever the permutation, an edge of the seat thriller may be in the reckoning.
*The writer is Community Editor.
BATTLE OF WITS: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, PTI Chairman Imran Khan, and PPP Co-chairman Asif Zardari.
