Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday was hawkish enough for Goldman Sachs Group to boost the odds of a September interest-rate increase, while Pacific Investment Management Co said there was nothing of note in her remarks.
Bond traders agree with Goldman Sachs, with the market-implied probability of action next month rising after Yellen said in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the case for tightening policy has strengthened. The US bank now puts the “subjective odds” of a move in September at 40% from 30% previously, economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note after the address.
Fed funds futures indicate a 42% chance that the central bank will raise rates next month, up from 22% on August 19 and zero in late June after the UK voted to leave the European Union. The odds of an increase by December have climbed to 65% from a low of 8% reached June 27, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. The calculation assumes the effective fed funds rate will average 0.625% after the central bank’s next increase. US economy watchers are turning their attention to a payrolls report later this week for signs of whether there’s continued strength in the jobs market.
“I’m sure the Jackson Hole setting is lovely for this annual conference, but the Chair did not want to make any real news, and she succeeded,” Richard Clarida, a global strategic adviser at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, wrote in a client note. Yellen’s remarks didn’t shed any light on “the near-term path for the normalisation of interest rates, and the Fed’s longer-run inflation-targeting framework,” he said.
The two-year Treasury note yield was little changed at 0.84% yesterday as of 6:55 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 0.75% security due in August 2018 was 99 26/32. Earlier the yield climbed to 0.85%, the highest since June 3. Last week’s yield increase was the biggest since May.
The two-year notes are relatively more sensitive to the outlook for monetary policy than longer-dated securities. Treasuries trading was closed in London for a UK holiday.
With traders ramping up bets on a 2016 rate increase, the jump in yields on shorter maturities has outpaced longer-dated debt. As a result, the extra yield that 30-year bonds offer over two-year notes shrank to 1.43 percentage points, set for the lowest closing level since the end of 2007. The 30-year bond yield fell two basis, or 0.02 percentage point, to 2.27%.
The benchmark US 10-year note yield slipped two basis points to 1.62%.
Yellen’s speech puts the spotlight on Friday’s August labour report, which is projected to show employers added 180,000 jobs, following a gain of 255,000 in July. The monthly labour force number has exceeded expectations in the past two readings, pointing to renewed vigour in the employment market.
“Unless we have a blow-up payrolls number on Friday, and strong data between now and the September meeting, she’ll probably go in December,” said John Gorman, head of non-yen rates trading for Asia and the Pacific at Nomura Holdings in Tokyo.
“The short end of the curve is a bit on the dangerous side, because markets are still trying to decide whether the Fed is going to hike in September or December — which means the two-year notes can sell off quite a lot.”
u201cI’m sure the Jackson Hole setting is lovely for this annual conference, but the Chair did not want to make any real news, and she succeeded,u201d Richard Clarida, a global strategic adviser at Pimco, wrote in a client note.
