With less than a month until the UK referendum on EU membership, our snapshot survey, conducted by YouGov, has found that only one in four businesses across Europe’s three largest economies has developed a clear plan for dealing with the impact of a ‘leave vote’. Our research involved a poll of senior decision makers in over 1000 businesses across Britain, France and Germany. Alarmingly, only a quarter (26%) of the organisations surveyed have a tangible plan for dealing with risks arising from a ‘Brexit’ and more than half of respondents (53%) said there had been no discussion at Board level about the potential impacts of Brexit. 
With a large number of businesses in Qatar having customers, suppliers, operations or investments in the UK and Europe, the effect of a Brexit could most certainly have an impact on businesses here. First, Trade agreements that exist between the Qatar and EU may cease to be applicable to the UK. Second, a large number of British businesses have a significant presence in the Middle East through regional offices which stand to benefit from proper planning by their UK headquarters. Third, anyone trading with such businesses, irrespective of their nationality or domicile, and whether or not they are trading directly with the UK or through an international office, has a vested interest in whether their trading partners or suppliers have planned ahead. 
The findings of the survey reflect that, while many larger businesses have begun contingency planning for Brexit, a significant proportion have not yet contemplated the impact a vote to leave might have. This means that if the UK vote is in favour of leaving the EU, there will be profound implications for all businesses irrespective of whether they operate or trade in — or with — the UK. A number of economists believe a vote in favour of Brexit would create a profound economic shock. Whether one accepts such predictions or not it is hard to imagine that — at the very least — exchange rates will not be impacted.
Given the potential for economic disruption, it’s surprising how few businesses have entered into discussions with investors and funders as to their attitudes to risk in the aftermath of a ‘leave’ vote. It would seem prudent to have those conversations now amid relatively benign conditions. However, it is encouraging that some businesses have started to consider what commercial opportunities might arise from a vote to leave. While this emerged as being one of the top two steps most likely to have been taken by businesses in France and Germany, this was not the case in the UK.


Sector split
Interestingly, of the sectors analysed in detail, the financial services sector emerged as the most prepared for change with 58% of respondents involved in FS saying they have had Board level discussions and 51% having a plan of action. They also appeared most likely of the major industry segments to consider relocating operations, with 18% having discussed or made plans for that possibility.


Going public
The survey also indicates that big business may yet try and influence the outcome of the vote, with nearly a third (32%) of the 221 large British businesses surveyed saying they are likely to follow in the footsteps of Airbus by communicating with their staff on how a Brexit would impact their business. During the Scottish referendum we saw a last-minute rush of businesses acknowledging the very real impact constitutional change would have on their organisations, and many say that proved decisive. If internal communications find their way into the public domain — which they very often do — we may see a repeat of that.


Planning ahead
There are a number of measures businesses can institute now in order to minimise the disruption of Brexit upon business, from assessing the number of workers likely to be impacted by freedom of movement rules to reviewing how and where customer data is held. Foremost among those should be identifying any business-critical contracts and considering if they are future-proof. Any agreements which specifically reference the EU as the territory governed by the contract may lack clarity. It is likely to be easier to agree amendments to those agreements now, especially where contracts have not yet been signed, rather than after a vote when the people on the other side of the table will know that the clock is ticking.
The uncertainties in a Brexit scenario are so great that there may be a temptation to do nothing until the referendum result emerges. However, our advice to businesses is to start taking steps now. While one cannot protect against all risks, it is possible to identify the risk areas and start thinking about how these could be mitigated.


* Peter Blackmore is head of Qatar Office for Law firm Pinsent Masons.