Even after almost a year of unchanged rates, caution is still a virtue for economists gauging the Russian central bank’s next move.
All but two of the 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg agreed with the International Monetary Fund’s advice to keep the pace of future easing gradual. The rest said they concur with a call by the head of VTB Group, Russia’s second-largest lender, for a “decisive” single cut of 2 percentage points.
The analysts are split over whether the central bank will lower interest rates when it meets next month, with 13 predicting no change from the current 11% and 11 seeing a decrease, according to the survey.
“With sharp movements in an environment where there are no apparent mortal threats to financial stability or inflation, as was the case in December 2014, the bank will undermine its credibility,” Armen Mirzoyan, an economist with Moody’s Analytics in Prague, said by e-mail. “For an inflation-targeting regime to work efficiently, the credibility of the central bank is single-handedly the most important asset.”
The central bank has shied away from the kind of policy zigzags that defined its first response to a currency crisis in 2014 and a recession that followed.
As oil prices collapsed a year and a half ago, Governor Elvira Nabiullina hoisted the key rate to 17% from 10.5% in the middle of the night in Moscow to stabilise the rouble.
A month later, it followed with one of the most abrupt reversals by central banks since 1990 by cutting it to 15%. None of the five reductions that followed exceeded 150 basis points.
The pieces are now falling into place for the easing cycle to resume after a pause since July.
The rouble has stabilised with a rebound in crude prices to near $50 a barrel and inflation is stable at the slowest pace in almost two years. While the IMF urged slower cuts as questions remain about the outlook for oil, fiscal policy and wages, VTB Chief Executive Officer Andrey Kostin said the market needs a “clear signal” in the form of an abrupt decrease in borrowing costs.
Policy makers have attached a greater weight to their credibility in the past year, standing pat as inflation expectations remained stubbornly high while the economic contraction deepened. The central bank in April held out the prospect of a rate cut at one of its “forthcoming” meetings.
“The best thing the central bank can do is to continue to build its credibility with the markets and become quite predictable, removing itself as a source of uncertainty,” said Tom Levinson, senior foreign-currency and rates analyst at Sberbank CIB in Moscow, who sees a 50 basis-point cut in each of the next two quarters. “External factors look unlikely to calm any time soon. For this reason, we are cautious on Bank of Russia easing.”
The benchmark rate will remain at 11% in June and reach 9.5% by year-end, according to a separate Bloomberg survey. Derivatives traders are also pricing in monetary loosening ahead.
Forward-rate agreements are signalling 44 basis points in rate cuts during the next three months. The rouble has gained about 11% against the dollar this year after a 20% loss in 2015.
Price growth stalled in the past two months at 7.3% from a year earlier, almost double the 4% target. Last year’s base effect may even result in a higher rate in May-June before disinflation resumes, according to the central bank.
The Bank of Russia has signalled it’s in no rush with monetary easing. First Deputy Governor Dmitry Tulin said its believes rate cuts will bring no “significant growth of the real economy.”
Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg say the central bank will remain focused on the domestic outlook in its decision- making amid mounting external risks, such as an economic slowdown in China. Its rate path will change depending on the number of increases in borrowing costs by the US Federal Reserve, according to 16 of the 25 respondents.
Analysts now see the Russian economy contracting 1% this year, down from a previous median forecast last month for a drop of 1.5%.
“The central bank can and should cut by 2 percentage points - there is little risk of a renewed run on rouble, much cheaper oil prices are also unlikely,” said Nerijus Maciulis, chief economist at Swedbank in Vilnius, Lithuania. “The current policy rate is no longer justified by macroeconomic and financial conditions.”
A man walks in front of the Russia central bank in Moscow. The Bank of Russia has shied away from the kind of policy zigzags that defined its first response to a currency crisis in 2014 and a recession that followed.
