US President Barack Obama said on Sunday his biggest mistake in office was failing to plan for “the day after” the fall of the Muammar Gaddafi regime in Libya after the US-led Nato attacks in 2011. But as bad as Libya looks today, global institutions - constrained by competing national priorities - have since grown complacent to the five-year old imbroglio.
Apart from bringing about one of the worst humanitarian and refugee crises, Libya’s enduring fighting since the eight-month bloody civil war that broke out in February 2011 has driven the country to an inevitable financial collapse.
The drop in oil production in recent years has resulted in $68bn in lost revenue for a country that currently produces just 362,000 bpd compared with a pre-uprising high of 1.6mn bpd. Attacks on oil installations and lower crude prices have reduced foreign currency reserves to about $50bn. The exchange rate hovers around three times the official 1.37 dinars to a dollar in the black market.
Living costs have surged in a country that imports most of what it consumes, putting even medicines beyond the reach of many. The estimated $74bn Libyan economy is forecast to contract 8% this year.
More than five years after the uprising that ended Gaddafi’s 42-year dictatorship, some 1,700 clans and militias are still battling for power in Libya. The country has become the transit point for smuggling illegal migrants to Europe.
Libya is agonisingly close to becoming a failed state. But amid fears of an imminent collapse and rising militant influence, glimmers of hope are emerging. A UN-sponsored unity government led by Fayez Serraj assumed office last month in capital Tripoli and has won support from politicians and militias, offering hope that Libya may begin to emerge from the turmoil that has uprooted nearly half a million people since 2011.
Serraj’s chief rival has left the capital, while important factions in 10 cities and several armed groups have pledged loyalty. Critically for an economy facing bankruptcy amid an oil production slump, the National Oil Corporation and the central bank, which struggled to remain neutral amid a power struggle between two powerful rival administrations, gave their backing.
Serraj does face hurdles that proved insurmountable for the nine leaders that succeeded Gaddafi since 2011 and failed to restore stability to the holder of Africa’s largest oil reserves. A government based in Tobruk in the east and its military commander Khalifa Haftar oppose him. A spate of militant attacks would test fragile allegiances too.
Make no mistake, Libya is now in dire need of an efficient leadership with a compelling new national vision to unify competing authorities, rein in trigger-happy militias and bridge regional divisions for a stable nation that thrives on its oil riches.
Only time will tell if Serraj can rise up to that challenge. But the longer it takes to contain the chaos, the tougher his task will become.
