Addressing the challenges facing Ukraine will require policymakers inside and outside of the country to work together to stabilise the country’s economy
By Wolfgang Ischinger/Munich
Ukraine faces two major threats to its future. On one side stands the risk of protracted conflict and the partition of its territory. On the other lurks the danger of bankruptcy and economic turmoil. Looming over them both is the country’s relationship with Russia. Addressing the challenges facing Ukraine will require policymakers inside and outside of the country to work together to stabilise the country’s economy, protect its territory, and create space for reforms, while seeking to improve co-operation with its powerful eastern neighbour.
Sending a clear military message remains essential. Nato rightly responded to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, ongoing support for separatists in eastern Ukraine, and mock attacks on Western countries with a programme of political and military reassurance. Just as the alliance demonstrated solidarity with West Germany during the Cold War, it must now do the same with its eastern allies. This effort should be buttressed by a reversal in the downward trend in defence spending by many Nato members.
The European Union must also begin to put in place a more credible and capable defence policy. The time has come to realise fully the principle of European defence integration. Doing so would not only strengthen the EU’s ability to act, it would also send a powerful signal of resolve to the Kremlin. At the same time, the EU must advance its energy union, diversifying its oil and gas imports and lessening its dependence on Russia. Finally, given the threat a defenceless Ukraine poses to European stability, it would be a mistake to rule out the provision of military aid to the country.
In addition to the military response, an economic intervention will be necessary. Ukraine is in desperate need of financial assistance – a point that George Soros was among the first to recognise. Indeed, providing Ukraine with assistance is far more important than punishing Russia with sanctions. Just as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s declaration that “the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro” calmed financial markets, so would a proclamation by the EU that it will do everything necessary to support Ukraine’s recovery.
Given the debate over Greece, spending the sums necessary to pull the country out of its slump is likely to be politically pricey, but the cost – political, military, and financial – of allowing Ukraine to collapse is too high for failure to be an option. Putting in place a rigorous oversight mechanism could help reassure governments and voters, and facilitate the country’s Association Agreement with the EU.
The power of European values should not be underestimated. The young Ukrainians who protested on Maidan square – not against Russia, but against a corrupt elite that was robbing their country of its European future – must be supported. The EU has an opportunity to make a large social impact by moving ahead with a visa-free travel programme, creating more grants for Ukrainian students, and increasing support for NGOs.
These steps on their own, however, will not be enough. Even as the EU and Nato move to support Ukraine, they must also work to address Russia’s concerns. Their central strategy should be to demonstrate that while the West remains committed to the defence of Ukraine, it is ready to work constructively with Russia should the Kremlin prove willing to change course.
Sanctions must be maintained for as long as the Kremlin and the Ukrainian separatists it has supported fail to comply with the Minsk Protocol, but it is important to begin to bring Russia out of the cold. To start, the dispute over Ukraine’s prospects of joining Nato must be definitively settled. After all, the question of whether to admit Ukraine into Nato has already essentially been answered in the negative in many European capitals. The EU could, while offering increased assistance, encourage Ukraine to redefine itself as a bridge between East and West – as Finland, Austria, and even Switzerland have done in the past.
In the meantime, steps must be taken to work around Russia’s exclusion from the G-8. One possible approach would be to turn the “5+1” format – which enabled the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), plus Germany, to conduct negotiations with Iran – into a broader relationship. Such a forum could address all kinds of global and regional issues, ranging from Ukraine to Syria, with the additional benefit of increasing American involvement in the effort to manage the crisis in Ukraine.
A greater emphasis must be put on preventing military miscalculations and unintended escalations, especially given the dramatic increase in provocations. A military-to-military dialogue between Nato and the Russian armed forces could greatly reduce these risks. This kind of co-operation could serve as a first step in a collective effort by key states – including Russia – to strengthen Europe’s security architecture. Conventional and nuclear arms control must be put back high on the agenda. Visions of strategic economic co-operation also deserve attention.
The inclusive multilateral framework of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe could serve as a basis for the way forward. Diplomatic and political progress proved possible even during the Cold War. Russia should be offered the chance to give new life to such an effort.
The ultimate objective, however, should be made explicitly clear. Neither the conflict in Ukraine nor the dialogue with Russia should be allowed to undermine the Helsinki principles or the Paris Charter agreed at the Cold War’s end. The goal should be for Russia and the West to work together to reaffirm and reinforce European security principles and, if necessary, add to them. Russia should be made to understand that it is welcome to join the effort – or risk further isolation. - Project Syndicate
♦Wolfgang Ischinger, former State Secretary of the German Federal Foreign Office and a former German ambassador to the United States and the United Kingdom, is Chairman of the Munich Security Conference.
