The International Monetary Fund expects to have to provide up to $50bn in immediate financial assistance to countries affected by the Middle East war, its managing director said on Thursday, with the crisis likely to have lasting economic effects. “Given the spillovers of the Middle East war, we expect near-term demand for IMF balance-of-payments support to rise to somewhere between $20bn and $50bn, with the lower bound prevailing if the ceasefire holds,” Kristalina Georgieva said, according to prepared remarks shared with AFP. She added that food insecurity due to transport and supply chain disruptions caused by the war was expected to affect at least 45mn people. “Even in a best case, there will be no neat and clean return to the status quo ante,” she said, as a fragile ceasefire appeared to hold on Thursday. The IMF chief was kicking off the annual Spring Meetings co-hosted by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington, which bring together top economic policymakers from around the world. The US-Israel war on Iran, launched on February 28, has engulfed the Middle East in violence, snarled supply chains and sent oil prices surging after Tehran virtually blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran and Washington have traded accusations of violations of the ceasefire terms, with talks aimed at a more durable peace slated for Saturday. The IMF will pare its global growth forecast for 2026 based on the impact of the crisis, with spiraling energy costs hitting some vulnerable economies harder than others. Georgieva said that even in the Fund’s “most hopeful scenario,” infrastructure damage, supply disruptions and a loss of market confidence among other “scarring effects” meant growth would be less than expected. She highlighted the “asymmetric” effects of the crisis, hitting low-income energy importers with limited fiscal space much harder than others. “Spare a thought for the Pacific Island nations at the end of a long supply chain, wondering if fuel will still reach them in the wake of such a severe disruption,” she said. On Wednesday, the World Bank said the Middle East — which has seen retaliatory Iranian strikes hit countries across the Gulf and Israeli attacks in Lebanon — saw “a serious and immediate economic toll” from the war. Excluding Iran, overall regional economic growth was expected to slow to just 1.8% in 2026, from 4% the year before — a downgrade of 2.4 percentage points from before the war, the Bank said. The IMF is also expected to revise global headline inflation upwards due to the oil price and supply chain shocks associated with the war. On Wednesday, the heads of the IMF, World Bank and World Food Programme (WFP) met in Washington to discuss the economic and food security impacts of the war. “Sharp increases in oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, together with transport bottlenecks, will inevitably lead to rising food prices and food insecurity,” said a joint statement on the meeting. The IMF and World Bank have also formed a coordination group to address the energy market impacts of the war. A top-level meeting of that body will take place on Monday. As part of the meetings the IMF will also release its annual Fiscal Monitor report, which is expected to flag rising government debt as countries tackle repeated economic shocks. In a new report this week, the IMF detailed the economic costs of war, estimating that output in countries where fighting takes place drops by 3% at the outset, “and continues falling for years.” An earlier report on the Iran war said “all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth,” and highlighted the impact of a severely disrupted fertilizer supply chain on food security. “Low-income countries are especially at risk of food insecurity; some may need more external support — even as such assistance has been declining,” the report said.

Many e-transactions including e-banking, e-gov and e-commerce are tremendously growing worldwide. We could easily notice that it is happening and spreading everywhere every day and every hour. Banks and other business companies and institutions, in many countries, are benefiting from this new atmosphere and are offering diversified e-transactions. The e-gov, projects likewise, as we see, are rapidly taking shape and started to pursue the performance of many essential government transactions that are needed as necessary and immediate services for any person in this e-era. Needless to say, that e-banking, e-transactions and e-gov services depend to a large extent on the output of electronic software and other media that requires proper utilization and implementation of the internet and its technological fields that has erupted as consequence to the new IT revolution. The establishment and implementation of e-companies and e-gov projects in many countries, will no doubt, give a great boost to all services, particularly it will enhance to a great extent, the new commercial and other investment activities. However, the potential of such electronic services are in need of certain infrastructure that should be put in place in order to give the necessary impetus to such important e-projects and necessary e-services. One of the main infrastructures needed for the new technologies that came as a result of the IT revolution, is the legal platform and the legal framework that should be cemented carefully. This sensitive task should be shouldered with due diligence and professionalism, taking into account the experience of advanced jurisdictions in this respect. There is a great need, also, for cyber laws to combat e-crimes and e-criminals. The internet and related software activities, as we know, is a sort of computer program primarily aimed at linking certain points electronically. Within this context, it is important to highlight some legal problems or issues that could affect the e-transactions process unless certain legislations are put in order and properly maintained with the intention of developing such new advanced processes. The e-transactions and the e-projects will no doubt enhance the expansion of e-commerce with other business entities in all parts of the world. However, we have to admit that e-banking and e-commerce transactions are still facing some legal, commercial and logistical problems. Among other things, we mention that, payments systems worldwide are still facing some practical difficulties. Some companies may be out of competition because they don’t have developed websites, or even if they have, are unable to display their products in an attractive marketing or informative way. Some commercial entities or individuals are still facing computer literacy and part of e-commerce business is processed through some mediators and the mediation process requires legalization of the relationship between the parties concerned. Some of the main software companies, in the world, are regularly facing certain legal litigation among themselves or with their governments. Such litigation or acute legal problems may affect the future of such programs or delay their start. Above points explain that e-banking, e-transactions or e-commerce are not without their share of obstacles. No need for getting panicked, as this could happen to all other sectors and in all trades. However, some of mentioned obstacles raise an urgent call for clear positive legal steps to be taken, so as to prepare a healthy legal environment for all types of e-transactions, e-banking and e-gov projects to achieve complete and endless benefits to stakeholders in all communities. Dr AbdelGadir Warsama Ghalib is a corporate legal counsel. Email: [email protected]