Climate change is threatening to flood whole islands in the South Pacific, and traditional ski countries like Germany often must resort to snow machines: things are changing, and they are changing fast.
World climate experts on Monday in Lima will launch the year-long UN effort to find a new agreement by December 2015, and more generally to try to negotiate ways to stop the global warming trend.
The polar bear has become the standard bearer for the threat. In 2004, there were still 1,500 polar bears in Alaska and in north-western Canada, but more recently they were down to only about 900.
At the 2010 climate conference, in the Mexican seaside resort of Cancun, attendees agreed to scientists recommendations that they must limit global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius over the pre-industrial temperature. However, measures taken so far have been insufficient.
The 12-day UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-20) conference in Lima will bring together 195 countries, to propose the guidelines for an agreement that is to be formally sealed a year later in Paris.
Hope has sprung from the recent small but historic agreement between China and the US to limit emissions - the world’s number one and two CO2 producers whose stalemate has blocked progress for the past decade.
US President Barack Obama announced that the US would reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% by 2025, compared with 2005.
China wants to reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) starting in 2030. Is that really enough? Hardly. However, climate experts and German government sources note that the Chinese leadership is nervous about thousands of unauthorised demonstrations against air pollution.
India is making progress too.
And yet talks about climate change usually turn into a blame game. After all, for many years it was only Western economies that secured economic growth while spewing greenhouse gases blamed for global warming.
Recently, hope has emerged of a more positive attitude than the one that made climate talks fail in Copenhagen in 2009. All states are required to come up with their own emission reduction goals starting with Lima. The deadline is late March 2015.
In Peru, negotiations will mostly focus on what gases should be targeted for reduction and the milestone year for achievement.
Unlike the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the new framework will not feature binding obligations, but rather a mix of national goals that will put the 2-degree goal out of reach. And yet a legally binding agreement is utopian at this stage, given the spotty support for the Kyoto provisions.
So far, climate talks have mostly been a frustrating zero-sum game. The European Union has made an effort to reduce emissions, while other countries increase their output. Eventually, a global trade in emission quotas - that is, an international price for CO2 emissions - could manage to keep CO2 pollution in check.
