Europe’s old left has got itself a new hero. Arnaud Montebourg, who was sacked by Francois Hollande as France’s economy and industry minister at the start of this week, has suddenly acquired martyr status by being banished to opposition in the socialist president’s latest purge of the left.
It is possible that Montebourg will end up not just as an icon but also as a winner. He clearly intends to challenge Hollande for the socialist party’s nomination for the 2017 presidential election. Given the party’s leftish culture and the French left’s protectionist instincts, he could well succeed. In the light of Hollande’s abject 17% approval rating, the odds would seem to be against the sitting president.
Yet this may be precisely the time to buy shares in Hollande. A Montebourg presidency is currently the politics of dreamland, a place that far too many on the left in all countries are too comfortable in. A much more pressing and practical question is whether Hollande himself can turn things around now, in the situation that exists. Clearly, the odds on him succeeding are long. Clearly also, you would not start from here if you could avoid it. But there is a good case for saying that he can.
It is difficult to dispute three things about Hollande right now. First, he is still the leader of a nation which, for all the asymmetry that now dominates European affairs, remains the most important other than Germany itself. Second, that he has just taken an enormously high risk - but possibly also high reward - one-shot gamble to right his ship. And third, it matters hugely to the rest of Europe that he now succeeds rather than fails.
The scale of the gamble can hardly be gainsaid. By purging the main ministers of the old left from his government, Hollande and his prime minister, Manuel Valls, risk an enduring split in the party that Francois Mitterrand brought together more than 40 years ago. Valls may even struggle to win a confidence motion when the new government comes before the national assembly.
Moreover, the choice of Emmanuel Macron as the new economy and industry minister is almost as audacious as Montebourg’s dismissal. To replace your chief economic anti-austerian with a former investment banker, a technocrat with no party base, is either crazy or brilliant. Judging by Hollande’s success rate as president, the former is of course more likely than the latter.
If nothing else, however, it sends a clear message to the party and to business - and to the Germans - that Hollande is up for the battle. It tells them that he prioritises business confidence, that he is prepared to follow a reform agenda and that, on the EU level, he is willing to work with Germany rather than place himself very publicly against it, as Montebourg did. All of these approaches make total sense.
But it is very important to understand which battles Hollande is actually fighting. He is, of course, fighting for his own political future.
