DELUGE: Kashmiri people use a makeshift raft to move to a safer place after flooding in Srinagar. Both the Indian and Pakistani sides of the disputed Himalayan region have seen extensive flooding with Srinagar particularly hard hit. Hundreds of people have been killed and tens of thousands are homeless.
By Steff Gaulter
Torrential rain has brought widespread destruction to parts of India and Pakistan. Over 500 people have been killed by the flooding in the two countries, with thousands of villages completely inundated.
The rain was generated by the summer monsoon which is currently bringing rain to much of India and Pakistan. Until September 3, many parts of northern India were actually concerned about the lack of rain that the monsoon had delivered. From Jammu and Kashmir to Bihar, the states were all reporting less rain than usual, with Jammu and Kashmir receiving 30% less than the average.
Then, on September 3, the rain started to fall. By September 7, 305mm (12 inches) of rain had fallen across the border region of India and Pakistan, triggering widespread flooding and landslides.
Kashmir is famous for its beauty and natural scenery. Its high snow-clad mountains, beautiful valleys, and winding rivers make the region a magnet for tourists. However, it was this natural landscape which transformed the flooding into a disastrous situation. The heavy rain fell onto the mountainsides and hurtled downhill, forming huge torrents of water. This water barged through any obstacle which lay in its path, tearing through homes, flattening trees, until it found its way into the rivers and lakes.
Quickly the waterways became swollen, over-spilling their banks and triggering flooding. The Kashmir Valley has seen major construction over the years and some people are blaming the scale of the disaster on the development of land in unsuitable locations. Wetlands, lake and riverside locations are said to have been encroached on for years by developers, particularly near the city of Srinagar, and these locations are particularly prone to flooding.
Srinagar is known as the summer capital of Jammu and Kashmir. Its high elevation and northerly location ensures that Srinagar is much cooler than many other locations in India. The city lies in the Kashmir Valley, surrounded on all sides by the peaks of the Himalayas. The average height of the valley is 1,850m (6,070ft) above sea level, but the surrounding mountains rise to between 3 to 4,000m (10 to 13,000ft) and are always capped with snow. Geologists believe that about a 100mn years ago the Kashmir Valley was a lake and the surface of the valley is still peppered with springs and lakes.
The mountains offer protection from the summer rains which affect much of the rest of the region. Only the most powerful storms within the monsoon make it across the natural barrier. In fact, Srinagar’s wettest month isn’t within the monsoon season at all, it’s actually March, when the weather systems track in from the west.
Flowing through the Kashmir Valley is the Jhelum River. The river flows through the valley at a very slow speed and ultimately filters out through a narrow gorge at Baramulla. The narrow exit of the Jhelum River ensured that the city of Srinagar remained flooded for many days. During this time, many people were stranded on their rooftops, waiting to be rescued by boat or by air. After several days of being submerged in the water, many of their homes simply collapsed.
Once out of the valley, the Jhelum River flows across the border into Pakistan, eventually joining the mighty Indus River. As the water roared down the Jhelum River, it overflowed its banks, triggering further flooding downstream. Even when the water raced into the Indus, the amount of water was simply too much for the riverbed. The flooding continued as the water raged towards the sea.
The flooding in Srinagar is heart breaking, but could be accepted to be a solitary event: simply a natural disaster of tragic proportions. However, in Pakistan, it’s far more difficult to ignore the succession of events; the past four consecutive monsoon seasons have all brought devastating flooding. The most severe was in 2010, when floods inundated a fifth of the entire country and killed nearly 2,000 people.
The recurrent flooding can be partly attributed to poor infrastructure and a rising population, but it also has to be due to the warming climate. More moisture can evaporate into warmer air, and this ensures there is the greater potential for severe weather events.
Scientists discovered that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased incidence of severe flooding.
Unfortunately this means we can expect to see further disastrous floods during the monsoon in the coming decades, especially if the climate continues to warm.
Given that the population is likely to continue to increase dramatically in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding can be expected to increase. The forecast for the monsoon in 2015, however, may be a little different. If the natural warming phenomenon known as El Nino develops in the Pacific Ocean, it could well lead to a reduction in the amount of rain.
This could reduce the risk of flooding, but there is also the chance that it may cause the rains to fail, leading to a drought. As usual, the amount of rain remains on a knife edge; it is critical to life and any deviation is disastrous.