Bloomberg/Moscow
Russia’s economy slowed less than forecast by analysts in the third quarter as an improved harvest helped shield the country from tumbling oil prices and the impact of sanctions over Ukraine.
Gross domestic product grew 0.7% from a year earlier after expanding 0.8% in the previous three months, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said yesterday, citing a preliminary estimate.
That was above the median forecast for 0.3% by 21 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
The third consecutive quarterly deceleration in growth means Russia’s economy is expanding at the weakest pace since a 2009 contraction.
The Bank of Russia, which has struggled to cushion the world’s worst currency decline during the past three months, said this week that growth may be zero next year.
Russia’s harvest improved from last year, which may have cushioned the GDP figure for the third quarter, Evgeny Nadorshin, chief economist at AFK Sistema, said by phone before the release. Industrial output, possibly in the defence sector, may have also helped in the period, he said.
The Micex Index of 50 stocks remained down after the release and was 0.7% lower to 1,503.41 as of 4:02 pm in Moscow. The rouble was down 1.4% against the dollar.
The rouble has depreciated 23% in the past three months against the dollar, the worst performance among more than 170 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The central bank cancelled regular interventions on the currency market and said it would temporarily limit rouble liquidity to support the rouble.
There’s a 70% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, according to the median estimate of 27 economists in a Bloomberg survey October30. That’s the highest reading since Bloomberg started tracking the figure two years ago, up from 60% last month.