Bloomberg
Oil markets are scrutinising Opec’s every move for signals of what the 12-nation group will do to its production target at a meeting in Vienna today.
The group is considering sparing Iraq, Iran and Libya from potential oil-production cuts, two people with knowledge of a proposal have said. The proposal is one of several under discussion, the people said, asking not to be identified in line with their national policies.
Crude has tumbled into a bear market after US output rose to a 31-year high and conflict failed to disrupt Iraq’s supplies. The International Energy Agency predicts the slowest growth in global demand since 2009 this year.
Following are the latest comments from producers in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their respective shares of the group’s supply, based on October production levels. The estimates for the price each member needs to balance its budget are from the International Monetary Fund unless stated otherwise.
ALGERIA
Price needed: $113.30
Share of Opec production: 3.6%
Algeria is “very tranquil” about the drop in prices, Algerian Energy Minister Youcef Yousfi said at a news conference in Oran on October 12.
ANGOLA
Price needed: $94 (Business Monitor International)
Share of Opec production: 5.5%
Angolan Deputy Oil Minister Anibal Octavio da Silva said on November 11 in Acapulco that prices are too low for all producers, and that Opec hasn’t decided yet whether to cut. Angola Finance Minister Armando Manuel said in Washington on October 6 that Opec should take steps to prevent further price declines.
ECUADOR
Price needed: $130 (Capital Economics)
Share of Opec production: 1.8%
Ecuador and Venezuela will ask Opec members to trim production in excess of the 30mn barrel ceiling, an Ecuadorean official who asked not to be identified said on November 18.
IRAN
Price needed: $153.40
Share of Opec production: 8.9%
Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said Iran won’t decrease its share of the global market, “even by one single barrel,” ministry website Shana reported on November 19.
The nation may propose cut of 1mn bpd, state-run Mehr reported on November 23
IRAQ
Price needed: $102.20
Share of Opec production: 10.7%
Something must be done because current oil prices are unacceptable, Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said upon arriving in Vienna on Monday. All means are to be used to raise prices and Opec unity is imperative in any agreement reached, he said.
KUWAIT
Price needed: $52.30
Share of Opec production: 9.2%
Kuwait’s Oil Minister Ali al-Omair said in Abu Dhabi on November 10 that there’s no plan for Opec to cut its collective crude output at the November meeting.
LIBYA
Price needed: $111.50
Share of Opec production: 2.7%
Libya’s Opec governor Samir Kamal, not speaking in his official capacity, said on November 19 that Opec should reduce its target to 29.5mn bpd from 30mn a day.
NIGERIA
Price Needed: $126 (Deutsche Bank)
Share of Opec production: 6.7%
Nigerian Oil Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke said November 21 that Opec doesn’t “necessarily” need to cut output, even though there are signs of oversupply.
QATAR
Price Needed: $59.30
Share of Opec production: 2.2%
Qatar’s Minister of Energy and Industry HE Dr Mohamed bin Saleh al-Sada hasn’t publicly commented on the global oil market since Opec’s last meeting in June.
SAUDI ARABIA
Price Needed: $83.60
Share of Opec production: 31.5%
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Monday that it’s not the first time the oil market has been over supplied. He doesn’t anticipate a difficult meeting when the group meets.
UAE
Price Needed: $70.70
Share of Opec production: 9.2%
The global oil market is oversupplied, as a result of US shale output rather than Opec, which will continue to balance the market, UAE Oil Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said in Abu Dhabi on November 11. Opec’s decision will be driven by supply and demand fundamentals, he said on his Twitter account on November 23.
VENEZUELA
Price Needed: $161 (Citigroup)
Share of Opec production: 8%
President Nicolas Maduro said on state television on November 17 that the country was co-ordinating with Russia to defend oil prices. Russia subsequently said it has no immediate plans to cut output. Venezuela is prepared to reduce its oil output as part of a wider international agreement, Foreign Minister Rafael Ramirez told reporters on November 20 in Caracas.
