Gulf supply chains have demonstrated strong operational agility through re-routing and improvisation during geopolitical shocks, yet critical structural vulnerabilities persist across the region, according to an industry expert.
Speaking on the impact of the ongoing conflict, Dr Iman Adeinat, an expert in logistics and supply chain management at Carnegie Mellon University in Qatar (CMU-Q), explained that the fundamental exposures evident six months ago remain unresolved despite successful operational workarounds.
Dr Adeinat noted that while essential commodities continue to reach Qatari markets through alternative routes, the core structural dependency on the Strait of Hormuz presents an enduring challenge for the energy sector.
"The agility was real. Within days of the February closure, goods moved overland through Saudi Arabia, transshipped through Red Sea and Omani ports, and drew on Qatar’s reserves. Even now, half a year on, essential goods still reach Qatari shelves.
"The structural vulnerability is equally real and has not gone away. A fifth of the world’s oil and gas, and effectively all of Qatar’s LNG, still depends on a single channel that remains largely closed. No amount of agility manufactures a second Strait of Hormuz. That is the exposure the war laid bare, and it persists,” Dr Adeinat told Gulf Times in an exclusive interview.
Dr Adeinat stressed that trade flows have split significantly, with import logistics maintaining stability while energy exports bear the brunt of the maritime closure.
"Exports and imports have behaved completely differently and conflating them has been the main source of public anxiety. Six months on, that divergence is starker than ever,” she noted.
Regarding the export environment, infrastructure damage alongside restricted vessel movement has severely affected gas shipments out of the country. "On exports, the damage is severe and ongoing. Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan in March destroyed two production trains, taking roughly 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity offline for what QatarEnergy says could be three to five years.
"Worse, the brief June reopening that let a few cargoes out has reversed: since the July breakdown, Qatar has again been largely unable to move LNG at anything near its normal three-shipments-a-day rhythm. This is now the longest sustained interruption to Qatari gas exports in the country’s history,” Dr Adeinat pointed out.
In contrast, consumer supply lines have avoided significant shortages owing to earlier infrastructure investments and strategic coordination with regional logistics hubs.
"On imports, the picture remains far more reassuring, and that contrast is the story worth telling. Qatar imports most of its food, yet after six months availability has held, because reserves were reinforced early and multi-route sourcing through Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea has been sustained,” she explained.
Dr Adeinat noted that long-term strategic initiatives, including port expansions and agricultural self-sufficiency programmes established over the past decade, provided the baseline security necessary to withstand current pressures.
"Qatar’s most important diversification step was taken almost a decade ago, and that is the key to understanding why it has coped for six months. Within the last eight years, Qatar expanded Hamad Port, built domestic dairy and agriculture almost from scratch, diversified suppliers, and institutionalised food security as national policy. The systems performing under sustained pressure today are the ones built then,” she stressed.
She emphasised that land transport links through Saudi Arabia and Red Sea ports have emerged as key logistical substitutes for containerised cargo during the maritime blockage.
"What is new in this conflict is the overland dimension. With the sea contested, Qatar leaned on road corridors through Saudi Arabia and the kingdom’s Red Sea logistics services, and those have become a durable part of the toolkit,” she said.
However, Dr Adeinat stated that overland routes cannot replace maritime channels for bulk energy logistics, reinforcing the necessity of maintaining open international maritime corridors.
"Qatar has diversified how it feeds its people. It cannot, yet diversify how it sells its gas, which is why the prolonged closure has hit exports so much harder than imports, and why a secure strait remains a global interest, not just a Qatari one,” Dr Adeinat added.