Qatar warned this week that losing Bab el-Mandeb would be "catastrophic for the entire world" — a judgement delivered as Houthi forces completed their takeover of Yemen's Red Sea coast, 63 people were killed in a single day of fighting, and crude held above $100 a barrel.
Director of Media and Communication Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ibrahim bin Sultan al-Hashmi said on Tuesday the region could not absorb a second closed waterway on top of Hormuz, and that Qatar was working with regional and international partners on freedom of navigation.
Military sources on both sides said Thursday that 63 people had died in 24 hours. A government official declared at least 23 soldiers killed in Houthi missile and drone attacks across two southwestern provinces; Houthi sources reported 40 fighters killed in Saudi airstrikes and ground combat.
The advance that produced this was rapid. The Houthis took Mocha on September 10, pushed south the next day to seize the remaining coastline and Perim Island inside the strait, and captured the Hanish archipelago to the north. Dhubab, the coastal town facing Perim, fell in the same sweep. They now hold the whole of Yemen's Red Sea coast — their largest territorial gains in years.
The International Organization for Migration says more than 100,000 Yemenis have been displaced, most inside the country. Others have crossed Bab el-Mandeb in small boats.
The energy consequences are global. Crude eased slightly but stayed well above $100 after touching its highest level since May, and the average US retail diesel price set a record just short of $6.40 a gallon. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which allowed it to ship crude from the Red Sea, has been shut since it was struck last week in an attack Riyadh said came from Iraq. The US Navy is escorting ships through Hormuz while blockading Iranian ports; Iran says the strait stays closed until that blockade is lifted, and wants an arrangement letting it charge transit fees.
Washington's answer has been diplomacy, not firepower. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pressed Trump directly for military intervention as Perim fell, and was denied. Trump's public framing — "they called us" — has been read across the region as an acknowledgement that the US security umbrella has become selective and conditional.
Then came Muscat. US officials met Houthi representatives at the American embassy there on Sunday, in a meeting organised with local help. The Houthis said they had no intention of attacking US vessels and were committed to the 2025 ceasefire, and one source said they would spare Israeli and commercial shipping — except Saudi-owned vessels. The delegation included Mohammad Abdulsalam, who is under US sanctions, and Abdelmalik al-Ajiri. The talks turned on keeping the strait open without drawing Washington into Riyadh's war.
Riyadh's hedge predates the offensive. In July, fourteen states announced a Saudi-led multinational defensive maritime alliance to safeguard navigation in Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkiye, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sudan, Djibouti and Somalia — after a Riyadh meeting of chiefs of staff from 43 countries, with planners left to finalise a charter before launch. Two months on, the alliance built to secure Bab el-Mandeb has not begun operations, and the strait has changed hands.
Qatar has condemned the attacks as a violation of Saudi sovereignty, urged implementation of Security Council resolutions 2216 and 2722, and repeated that Saudi security is integral to Qatar's and the GCC's. Qatar's military chief also attended the closed conference in Germany convened by CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper, who told eight regional counterparts the US would not withdraw its forces and outlined a plan to expand traffic through Hormuz.
Two dates now matter. Trump is expected to meet leaders or foreign ministers of all six GCC states on Tuesday at the General Assembly, the agenda built around a post-war plan not due before the November midterms. The other is the meeting that did not happen: Iran, Iraq and the GCC minus Bahrain were to have met at Salalah on Monday to map temporary Hormuz corridors, shelved at Saudi request amid anger over Houthi attacks and Riyadh's fear the wording would entrench a new status quo. No new date is set — and reviving it is Doha's most concrete piece of business.