India’s vast reserves of surplus crop residue, combined with record-low green hydrogen prices, could fuel not only its own aviation sector but also airlines worldwide, a new study has said. The report, prepared by the India Energy and Climate Centre, the UC Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy, and the Energy Innovation Policy and Technology, stated that power-and-biomass-to-liquids (PBtL) sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) offers India the least-cost pathway to decarbonise air travel while reducing dependence on imported oil and cutting air pollution from crop fires.
The report noted that India imports nearly "90%” of its crude oil, leaving the country exposed to price volatility and geopolitical risks. Aviation turbine fuel demand, which accounted for less than "4%” of oil consumption in 2024, is expected to rise six-fold by 2050, increasing vulnerability to supply shocks, it pointed out.
Seasonal burning of crop residue remains a major contributor to India’s air pollution, with New Delhi recording the worst air quality among global capitals. Farmers burn an estimated "130mn tonnes” annually, causing between "44,000” and "98,000” premature deaths each year.
The pollution also reduces work attendance and performance, lowers economic activity, raises healthcare costs, worsens soil quality, and deters tourism, the study stated.
India’s carbon dioxide emissions have tripled since 2000. While short-term climate goals are on track, analysts warn that much more ambitious actions will be needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, according to the report.
The study said India’s plummeting solar electricity costs, "among the lowest globally,” have enabled green hydrogen prices as low as "$3.1–4.5 per kg.” Combined with surplus residue of up to "235mn tonnes,” this creates a unique opportunity to produce SAF at costs up to "40%” below global benchmarks.
PBtL SAF could reach price parity with fossil jet fuel in the 2030s, depending on crude oil prices and supportive policies. In the meantime, India could serve rising international demand for SAF blending mandates and corporate procurement goals, the study stated.
Beyond economics, the report said PBtL SAF could deliver wide-ranging co-benefits. By creating demand for residue that farmers currently burn, it could reduce air pollution, avoid premature deaths, increase productivity, boost tourism, and strengthen rural economies through new revenue streams and jobs in collection and densification.
The report identified Delhi, Pune, and Mumbai as prime sites for first-of-a-kind projects, given their proximity to large airports and abundant residue supplies.
Policymakers were urged to mobilise India’s public sector oil companies, including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum, to anchor early PBtL deployment.
Their control of refining and distribution infrastructure, coupled with government-backed financing, could help absorb the risks of novel SAF facilities.
The study cautioned against unintended consequences, stressing that only surplus residue should be used to avoid displacing soil nutrients or encouraging land use changes. It also warned against blanket support for SAF pathways that rely on food crops or fossil-based hydrogen.
Among its recommendations, the report called for concessional finance and streamlined approvals for demonstration projects, trade policy alignment with EU and UK mandates, and incentives tied to avoided air pollution deaths. It also urged India to expand SAF blending targets beyond 5% in 2030 to provide longer-term business certainty.
The authors concluded that India’s unique combination of low-cost green hydrogen and surplus residue could deliver domestically-produced jet fuel that is low-cost, low-emissions, and resource-efficient. With the right policy support, India could advance self-reliance, improve air quality, strengthen rural economies, and position itself as a global leader in aviation decarbonisation.