Business
Qatar’s North Field expansion seen to underpin GCC hydrocarbon growth
Emirates NBD has forecast Qatar’s hydrocarbons growth at 7.0% next year and 8.0% in 2027.
The anticipated launch of Qatar’s North Field gas expansion, which is expected to come online around the middle of 2026, will underpin GCC hydrocarbon segment growth, according to Emirates NBD.
The regional banking group has forecast Qatar’s hydrocarbons growth at 7.0% next year and 8.0% in 2027.
While there will be a modest slowdown in the region’s non-hydrocarbons activity next year, Emirates NBD anticipates that growth in the hydrocarbons sector, which still accounts for nearly 30% of the GCC economy, will accelerate and expand by 6.5%. This would be the fastest rate of growth since 2022 when the region benefitted from the post-Covid surge in demand for oil and compares with an estimated 4.5% growth in 2025.
"The surge in growth does not reflect a particular rise in forecast global demand next year, with growth expected to be sluggish at best, but rather in large part a change in strategy from OPEC+ that has seen it pivot to target market share rather than pricing,” Emirates NBD noted.
This will boost Saudi Arabia’s oil GDP in particular, where it forecasts growth of 8.0% next year, while Kuwait will pick up to 6.0%, from an estimated 3.5% in 2025.
Bahrain is not a member of OPEC+, but should benefit from the Bapco modernisation programme, which was introduced in late 2024 and expected to boost activity.
The researcher’s broad expectation for non-oil activity in 2026 is that there will be a modest slowdown across the bloc, but this is largely on the back of base effects following several years of higher-than-average growth coming out of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The conditions that have supported growth through the past year are set to continue, with the global environment arguably set to be more conducive to stimulating economic activity than was seen in 2025.
"We forecast weighted average non-oil growth of 4.4% in 2026, down from an estimated 4.8% in 2025, with Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia set to be the outperformers once again,” Emirates NBD noted.
On aggregate, the GCC economies will see stronger growth next year, with almost all of the six economies that constitute the bloc set to see a faster expansion than Emirates NBD estimated for 2025. This, it noted, will be driven by an anticipated acceleration in hydrocarbons activity, while non-oil growth will remain strong, albeit slowing from recent levels.
Non-oil growth will be supported by growing populations, the expansion of new industries, and high levels of public investment. Lower oil prices will keep pressure on budgets, but this will be offset in part by higher production levels, and the regional governments remain committed to their various development agendas.