What’s at stake as Trump tariffs test India’s ties with Russia

President Donald Trump’s move to penalise India for buying oil and arms from Russia will increase economic risks for the South Asian nation and test its longstanding ties with Moscow.Trump said on July 30 he will impose a 25% tariff on Indian exports to the US and add an undefined penalty for New Delhi’s energy and military purchases from Russia. The threat came a day after Trump shortened Russia’s deadline to reach a truce with Ukraine.Washington and its partners see India’s purchases of Russian energy as a form of tacit support for Moscow that weakens the impact of the sanctions they’ve imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine."I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care,” Trump said in a Truth Social post a day after announcing the India tariff.What’s the relationship between India and Russia?India has had a strong and stable relationship with Russia over the last seven decades. India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has referred to it as the one constant in global politics over the last half century.The long-standing relationship has its roots in the Cold War era, when India maintained cordial relations with Moscow as the US moved closer to India’s arch-rival Pakistan. Despite New Delhi’s avowed non-alignment with either of the era’s two superpowers, Washington’s backing of Pakistan in its 1971 civil war that led to the independence of Bangladesh drew New Delhi closer to Moscow. The ties between India and Russia deepened over the next three decades as they collaborated in critical areas such as space, nuclear energy and defence.As India’s relations with Washington began to improve in recent decades, it’s reduced its overwhelming reliance on Russian weapons by acquiring more arms from the US and European nations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has maintained India’s longstanding ties to Moscow, while pursuing deeper links with the US, which it sees as a partner in standing up to a more assertive China.After Russian forces invaded Ukraine and Western nations tightened sanctions on Moscow, India began buying large volumes of Russian oil. India has stood out among major democracies for its reluctance to criticise Russian President Vladimir Putin, and has abstained from UN votes condemning his war in Ukraine. It has also refused to participate in punitive measures against Russia.Modi maintains close ties with the Russian leader, having visited the country in October. Putin is scheduled to visit India later this year.How much do Russia and India rely on each other for trade?Trade between India and Russia reached a record high of $68.7bn in the year to March 31. India’s exports to Russia were worth $4.9bn and its imports from Russia amounted to $63.8bn.Russia’s biggest investments in India are in oil and gas, petrochemicals, banking, railways and steel, while Indian investments in Russia focus mainly on oil, gas and pharmaceuticals.How much oil does India buy from Russia?India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, buys about 35% of its crude oil from Russia, up from just 1% before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The South Asian nation has become hooked on Russian seaborne crude oil because it comes at a discount to market rates.India traditionally relied on suppliers from the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, to meet its oil requirements. Shifting away from Russian oil would push India back to those Middle Eastern suppliers, which would likely lead to an increase in the cost of imports.How much does India rely on Russia for weapons?Russia is the largest supplier of weapons for India, according to a March report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, an independent think tank that studies global weapon sales. India has purchased fighter jets, battle tanks and missiles from Russia and the two countries also formed a joint venture to produce Kalashnikov assault rifles for India’s armed forces.India — the world’s second-biggest arms importer — has slowly been reducing its dependence on Russian weapons in recent years. There have been no new major arms deals with Russia for the last few years, and India’s push to diversify looks set to continue after delays in the delivery of Russian S-400 air defence systems.Many of India’s weapons now come from the US. India has contracted at least $24bn worth of US-origin defence articles, according to a 2025 US Congressional report. Major purchases include attack helicopters, transport aircraft and howitzers, according to the report. More weapons sales are being considered, including of anti-submarine warfare, communication and land-attack equipment, the report said."Since 2008, defence trade has emerged as a major pillar of the US-India security partnership, and bilateral military exercises across all services are now routine,” the report said.How would India’s economy fare in a shift away from Russia?Economists say any shift away from trading with Russia would have implications for India’s inflation and economic growth. Standard Chartered Plc estimates that a 100% pivot from Russian oil could increase India’s annual import bill by $4bn to $6.5bn.If India stops buying oil from Russia and higher fuel prices are passed on fully to consumers, inflation would be 3-5 basis points higher, Standard Chartered’s economist Anubhuti Sahay wrote in a report. The impact on India’s economic growth would be muted, she said, with an estimated decline of about 4-5 basis points."While the macro impact of such a shift appears manageable on a standalone basis, the actual impact would depend on how crude oil prices reacted to lower Russian crude oil supply globally,” she said.What’s at stake?The strong India-Russia relationship has often frustrated officials in Washington, who have sought to foster closer ties with New Delhi as a strategic counterweight to China. India’s government said in a statement it’s committed to a bilateral trade deal with the US, but didn’t address Trump’s threat to penalise it over its energy and defence purchases from Russia.According to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics, the stakes are high for both Delhi and Washington. "Trump’s move to link arms and energy imports from Russia with trade talks is likely to inject fresh friction into the relationship, especially coming after the recent conflict with Pakistan,” Chetna Kumar and Abhishek Gupta wrote in a report.A prolonged impasse could strain ties and slow progress on defence and tech coordination between the two countries, particularly in countering China’s growing influence, they wrote.