Sustainable population growth is a challenge for Qatar

There is a coherent strategy in Qatar to combine economic and population growth, covering a range of factors from encouraging young families to investment in infrastructure.Newly published data reported by Qatar News Agency that the number of people inside Qatar at the end of June 2023 was 2.656mn, showing a monthly decrease of 11.5% compared to May 2023 and an annual decrease of 0.05% compared to June 2022.This reflects the desire of many residents (Qataris and expatriates) to spend a summer vacation overseas, and such seasonal volatility in population has an impact on the economy, especially small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), for example, there has been a significant number of vacant retail units reported. This raises wider questions of how to encourage and manage population increases in Qatar.Population growth and economic growth would seem to form a mutually supportive link. In practice, it is not so straightforward. Certain types of demographic mix in the population growth are more conducive to economic development than others. In some circumstances, rising population may not result in growth at all. Research papers offer contradictory results on the matter, reflecting a highly complex set of interacting variable factors. Around the world, many nations are coping with a declining or ageing population, or both, as birth rates fall. There is an international trend towards smaller families and higher levels of education and professional occupations among women. Some nations, such as Canada and Australia, seek to compensate by attracting immigrants, prioritising those with qualifications.Qatar has a different demographic history, yet still confronts some similar policy questions. In 1960 in Qatar, there were fewer than 50,000 residents; the population did not reach 1mn until 2006. It has now reached around 3mn, with a projection for a further doubling in the coming decades. This is feasible, but it will not result in economic growth and enhanced living standards for all without the right policy mix. Moreover, as noted, the population is subject to seasonal falls.So, what is the optimal type of population growth to support economic development? Research indicates that higher levels of people with professional skills and entrepreneurial ability are beneficial, together with enhanced participation of women in the workforce. Their potential needs to be supported by a strong infrastructure. This combination is most likely to support the development of businesses and jobs that are high in terms of added value.The reverse question is also valid: What is the best type of economic growth to support population growth? In the context of Qatar, the emphasis needs to be on the private sector, especially the knowledge economy.A balanced age profile is an important consideration in population policy. As birth rates fall and life expectancy increases, there is a risk that the number of working-age adults becomes too few to support a large population of retired people. Qatar does not have income tax, but it does have a compulsory arrangement for Qataris in which those of working age pay a contribution to the Qatari national pension scheme.The Qatar Permanent Population Committee has identified six axes to ensure demographic balance and sustainable economic development. Within the first axis, population and labour force, there are four goals of policy:

• Increasing the number of citizens,
• Supporting development of the knowledge economy,
• Reducing reliance on workers from overseas,
• Achieving diversity by ethnic group.

To boost the birth rate, the committee has recommended reduced dowries and lower cost wedding halls. The former is not really implementable, as it involves quite personal choices within a family. The latter has resulted in the government providing wedding venues at a significant discount to the hotel sector.The Qatar economy is adjusting from a period in which there were many construction projects with significant numbers of relatively low-wage expatriate workers, towards an economy featuring more hi-tech growth businesses, able to employ professional expatriates.Qatar has a guest-worker programme, in which it is relatively straightforward for an employer to secure an employment visa for someone with a skill that is in demand. Lower-income guest workers have tended to be individuals from poorer regions and who remit a significant proportion of their income to their home countries. By contrast, professional people are more likely to relocate to Qatar with their families, significantly benefiting the local economy.The Population Committee would like to reduce reliance on overseas workers, involving a mix of policies including closer checks on expatriate workers’ qualifications, and a crackdown on visa trafficking. The Committee also seeks diversity by ethnic group, preventing a single nationality being dominant within a certain profession.As noted in earlier articles, the provision of real estate in Qatar has begun to outstrip population growth, and has not always featured the optimal mix; there is a need for more family homes for households with an income in the middle range. Some ageing developments from the 1970s and 1980s need to be modernised and made energy-efficient.The right type of population increase will benefit SMEs and the economy, ensuring more stability in private sector economic growth. Ensuring adequate transportation, addressing housing affordability, and implementing long-term urban planning strategies will be additional important policies to support this growth.

• The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions.