Experts: EU reaction to Libya conflict is chaotic

EU leaders take part in a family photo at an extraordinary summit on Libya and North Africa, in Brussels yesterday

DPA/Berlin/Godollo, Hungary
As EU foreign ministers met in Godollo, Hungary yesterday, experts opined that so far that the bloc’s reaction to the unfolding conflict in Libya resembled something akin to total confusion.
"The EU policies just aren’t mature enough or aligned enough to absorb this kind of crisis,” says Hugo Brady of the Centre for European Reform, a think tank in London.
"They’re still in learning mode.”
Indeed, instead of presenting a common policy, with all members marching in lockstep, the Libyan crisis has at times seemed to highlight how all 27 members of the union have their own agenda, and are prone to act upon it.
Thus, on Thursday, France announced that it would recognise the rebel forces that are seeking to unseat Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi after weeks of fighting.
It upped the ante yesterday, when President Nicolas Sarkozy called for airstrikes during an EU summit in Brussels.
Meanwhile, Hungarian officials said there had been de facto recognition of the new leaders.
Their comments came almost a week after British forces sent to the rebel-controlled parts of Libya on a diplomatic mission failed spectacularly, with the diplomat and his armed escorts held prisoner by their desired parley partners for the better part of a weekend.
Yet, as that was going on, Gaddafi was reaching out to the European Union for support, and finding there are still some doors that are open.
During the second part of the week, low-level Libyan officials had audiences in Portugal, Greece and Malta, even as other leaders were preparing to call for Gaddafi’s imminent removal.
"The Europeans can’t find a common line on Russia, so I don’t find it so hard to believe they can’t find a common line on Libya,” said Brady.
Yet, the stakes are higher this time. Unlike other international issues which sometimes leave the EU divided, the conflict in Libya is moving fast.
Thus, divisions between EU leaders carry more of a risk than just making the institution look waffly.
Richard Gowan, of the pan-European think-tank European Council on Foreign Relations, notes that, by pushing for a no-fly zone under an EU rubric, EU leaders risk Libyan forces then deciding that EU humanitarian aid – another priority – is also a fair target.
Other non-EU allies might also wonder how far in they are committing themselves if they back countries that have called for airstrikes, no-fly zones and recognition of rebel forces.
"The worst case is if Gaddafi is militarily successful. What does France do then?
"Does it then invite the Libyan equivalent of Charles de Gaulle to come to Paris to live in exile? The recognition desperately raises the stakes. At least for France,” said Gowan.
Few expected the EU to suddenly start acting as a cohesive unit when faced with the Libya situation.
"They’re all scrambling over what to do and form common positions out of various preferences,” said Michael Emerson of the Brussels- based Centre for European Policy Studies. "It’s not inconceivable that there is a little bit of undisciplined activism.”
But the goal now, say experts – especially in light of efforts under the Lisbon Treaty to strengthen the EU’s foreign policy apparatus – is to find some way to speak in a common voice.
"Everybody takes their stand, then the event actually happens, then the EU cobbles together a policy based on the country’s version that was most right,” says Brady. "But the first principle of their action should be like the Hippocratic oath: first do no harm.
"It’s a real test case for your foreign policy. And it will tell us a lot.”
"Probably brutally expose a lot, but at the end, we’ll probably have a more viable system,” he added.