Natural gas key to world’s energy mix amid climate goals

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) Global Gas Outlook 2050 presents a clear and data-driven case for natural gas’ enduring centrality in world energy mix.The 27th GECF Ministerial Meeting in Doha on Thursday took note of the report, which projects a 32% increase in global natural gas demand by 2050, with gas’s share in the global primary energy mix rising from 23% to 26%.This trajectory underscores the dual reality of the global energy transition: while decarbonisation accelerates, the world still requires secure, reliable, and affordable energy sources — a role that natural gas is well-positioned to fulfil.Several structural forces seem to underpin the GECF’s bullish outlook.The first is demographic and economic expansion, particularly in Asia and Africa, which are projected to account for the majority of new energy demand.Rising populations, urbanisation, and industrialisation will drive demand for electricity, manufacturing, and transport fuels. Natural gas, as a lower-carbon and flexible fossil fuel, will be central in meeting this need.Second, coal-to-gas substitution remains a powerful decarbonisation lever. Many fast developing major economies — including China, India, which are also energy-deficit, are gradually shifting from coal to gas to reduce emissions and local air pollution. This transition aligns with gas’s advantage of producing roughly 50% less CO2 per unit of energy compared to coal.Third, power sector flexibility reinforces gas’s strategic role. As intermittent renewables such as solar and wind expand, natural gas provides the dispatchable capacity needed to stabilise grids.The GECF foresees gas continuing to supply over one-fifth of the world’s electricity by mid-century, supporting both baseload and balancing functions.Finally, gas’s importance as an industrial feedstock — for petrochemicals, fertilisers, and especially hydrogen production — ensures long-term relevance.In a decarbonising world, "blue hydrogen” derived from natural gas with carbon capture will serve as a bridge to a hydrogen-based economy.On the supply side, growth will be geographically concentrated. The Middle East, Africa, and Eurasia are expected to account for around 87% of global production growth. The Middle East alone could deliver one-third of this expansion, reflecting vast reserves and competitive production costs.Qatar stands out as a central pillar of this growth story. With the North Field expansion, Qatar is poised to record the fastest annual gas-production growth in the Middle East until 2050, consolidating its status as a global LNG leader.LNG trade will more than double to around 800mn tonnes by 2050, becoming the dominant form of gas trade. Asia will remain the primary destination, accounting for three-quarters of global LNG imports.This shift elevates the strategic importance of gas-exporting nations like Qatar, which combine scale, reliability, and long-term investment in liquefaction infrastructure.Meeting future demand will require substantial investment. Industry experts project global upstream gas investment (in excess of about $11tn by 2050) with roughly $1.1tn needed in the Middle East alone.While natural gas remains a fossil fuel, it is increasingly seen as a "transition fuel” within sustainable finance. With the integration of carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) and blue hydrogen technologies, gas can play a pivotal role in reducing emissions without compromising energy security.For GCC-based producers, investing in decarbonised gas infrastructure aligns national energy strategies with global climate commitments, strengthening the long-term viability of the sector.Clearly, the GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050 envisions a future, where natural gas remains indispensable to global energy security and economic development, even amid the march toward decarbonisation.For Qatar and other top global gas exporters, it represents not only a validation of their long-term energy vision but also a call to innovate — mobilising capital for sustainable, technologically advanced, and resilient energy systems that bridge the present with a low-carbon future.