Pakistan’s US funding push after Iran war role draws scepticism
Pakistan’s push to convert some of its diplomatic goodwill with the Trump administration into economic support has drawn scepticism from economists, who say fresh financing will do little to address the reforms that Islamabad has long avoided.During a visit by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb to Washington this week, Pakistan requested a $10bn US exchange stabilisation fund, Reuters reported, citing sources with knowledge of the matter who were not authorised to speak publicly about it. In a previously unreported development, Pakistan later also pitched a separate trade-finance facility with the US EXIM Bank, said a source who was not authorised to discuss the matter publicly. Both proposals would bolster the rupee and diversify funding beyond the International Monetary Fund, China and Saudi Arabia. Pakistan helped broker a ceasefire between the US and Iran this year, but its economic fundamentals have remained largely unchanged from before the war began.Amid tensions with the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan repaid Abu Dhabi $3.5bn in April, a fifth of its reserves, and turned to a $3bn Saudi backstop to plug the gap. While it is unclear whether the US will agree to Pakistan’s proposals, some analysts see benefits for Washington, too.The Trump administration has sought a greater role in Pakistan’s critical minerals sector, said Uzair Younus, a partner at The Asia Group, adding that the financing is likely to further cement the US’ role in potential mining deals. But others doubt the soundness of any US-Pakistani deal.Adeel Malik, an Oxford University associate professor, called the proposed reserve facility “geopolitical rent,” coming after Pakistan’s mediation in the US-Israeli war on Iran and amid a new series of Middle Eastern escalations in recent days. IMF-enforced reforms have recently shown some impact. S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday upgraded Pakistan to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, its first upgrade in nine years, citing stronger fiscal and institutional settings. But the $7b IMF programme carries a political cost: unpopular tax rises and spending curbs as Pakistan’s government — already wary of its history of truncated terms — looks towards elections due by 2029. Gareth Leather of Capital Economics said the proposed US fund would provide a “vital cash cushion” for Pakistan’s reserves, without the IMF’s strict conditions or the constant renewal required for Chinese and Saudi deposits.The EXIM Bank facility, separately, would let Pakistani buyers defer payments to US exporters for one to three years, narrowing the US’ trade deficit with the South Asian country. The real test, however, would not be if fresh money arrives, but whether Pakistan finally delivers on tax, energy and state-owned-enterprise reforms, said Vaqar Ahmed, a Pakistani economist. Without those, he said, Pakistan will keep returning to the IMF.“Fresh liquidity can buy time, but it cannot buy growth,” Ahmed said. A statement citing the US Treasury secretary praised Pakistan’s reforms this week but stressed the importance of greater economic self-reliance and a return to the international capital markets, making no mention of the $10bn requested facility.EXIM on Wednesday confirmed talks only on a “strategic framework” targeted for signing at the United Nations General Assembly in September. Hungary’s Viktor Orban, another Trump ally, sought an Argentina-style “financial shield” in November 2025, but Trump did not offer one. Orban’s party lost Hungary’s election five months later.At this point, it is unclear what shape such a fund could take in Pakistan’s case.Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former Treasury and US Trade Representative official, said the facility would likely be structured like a maximum draw rather than an upfront dollar transfer. Treasury’s Exchange Stabilisation Fund could support it, he said, because Argentina is not drawing on its separate $20bn line. Argentina drew $2.5bn in October and repaid it in December, Treasury said.Not everyone in Washington is convinced the money should flow.Mark Sobel, a former senior Treasury official who is now the US chair of the OMFIF think tank, said Treasury should decline any swap line for Pakistan despite the countries’ security alliance. Martin Muehleisen, a fellow at the Atlantic Council and former IMF strategy chief, questioned the scale of the request against Pakistan’s roughly $138bn debt pile.“For a country the size of Pakistan, you would talk about a few hundred million dollars; $10bn is just a different order of magnitude,” he said, adding that without a strong debt-sustainability framework, it “would probably be a big risk for the US to spend so much money.” China likely wouldn’t be opposed to US help for Pakistan. Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, said Beijing wants it stabilised but doesn’t want to remain its sole backer - and would welcome Washington sharing the load. Few expect a US exchange stabiliaation fund to let Pakistan walk away from the IMF and its reforms.Malik said IMF programmes have become closely aligned with US geopolitical interests in Pakistan and serve as a major lever of American influence, one Washington is unlikely to give up.Setser said Washington would likely make any funds conditional on Pakistan staying in an active IMF programme.Even that wouldn’t necessarily ensure that Pakistan will pursue deeper reforms, however.The “most conservative use” of any borrowed reserves, Setser said, would simply be to sit on Pakistan’s balance sheet, inflating the country’s reported gross reserves without addressing what put it there in the first place.