Oil bulls get bolder as Opec cuts diminish the odds of a relapse

Oil’s bulls are getting bolder.With production cuts orchestrated by Opec taking hold and US shale drillers promising to rein in spending, hedge funds boosted wagers on increasing Brent crude prices by 17% in the week ended January 22. That was the biggest increase since August. Meanwhile, short-selling bets have plunged by 36% this month, the biggest three-week drop in about a year.Crude prices have recovered a third of 2018’s late-year losses in a rally that’s pushed the global benchmark up more than 20% since Christmas Eve. In the past few days, turmoil in Venezuela, holder of the world’s biggest oil reserves, added some momentum to the rebound.“Investors are continuing to get more constructive,” said Brian Kessens, who manages $16bn in energy investments for Kansas-based money manager Tortoise. “The risks on the upside are much more likely than the risks of going lower from here. We don’t see much ‘down’ for oil right now.”Whether investors have jumped on board just in time or overshot the mark remains to be seen. The price recovery stalled in recent days as the US-China trade dispute dragged on and the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global economic growth. Brent suffered its first weekly loss for the year.“The market for the time being is giving Opec and Russia the benefit of the doubt,” said Tamar Essner, an analyst with Nasdaq Inc in New York. “Now, the big wild card is what happens with demand. We’re sort of stuck in this tight range until we get a bit more clarity.”Net-long wagers – the difference between bets on a Brent increase and wagers on a decline – rose by 17% for the week ended January 22 to 202,934 options and futures contracts, according to data released on Friday by ICE Futures Europe. Longs climbed 2.7% to the highest in almost two months. Shorts slumped 26%.Data on hedge fund sentiment for the US benchmark price, West Texas Intermediate, weren’t available this week because of the US government shutdown.