Weakened Merkel has her work cut out to make coalition last

Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) have bought Chancellor Angela Merkeltime with their vote to join her conservatives in another coalition, butshe risks losing her long grip on power if she fails to balance theawkward allies’ conflicting demands.Merkel’s conservatives — her Christian Democrats (CDU) and theirBavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) allies — and the SPD are bothstill bruised after suffering from the rise of the far-right Alternativefor Germany (AfD) in last year’s election.Arch conservatives want to move right to counter the AfD, which profitedfrom Merkel’s 2015 decision to open German borders to over 1mnmigrants.The SPD, by contrast, wants to allay people’s insecurities with spending on welfare and education.“Merkel needs to appease a weakened and insecure SPD without alienatingher own CDU/CSU too much,” said Carsten Nickel, managing director atconsultancy Teneo Intelligence.Merkel has shared power with the SPD in two of her previous three terms in office, from 2005-2009, and from 2013 until now.The SPD said yesterday its members had voted by a two-thirds majority in favour of a coalition deal struck last month.But the two blocs’ weak performances in last September’s election, whenthey both suffered their worst results since Germany became a republicin 1949, mean the latest incarnation of their awkward alliance promisesto be the most fractious yet.“Despite the pretty solid majority (in the SPD ballot), this is not along-term or permanent set up,” said Guntram Wolff, director of theBruegel think tank.”The SPD is very fragile, and the CDU is alsofragile.”The inclusion in the coalition deal of a clause that envisages a reviewof the new government’s progress after two years is widely seen asgiving the SPD an exit should it want one, and has also fuelled a debateabout the post-Merkel era.“If the Social Democrats continue to fall in the polls, then the pointwill come at some stage when they say ‘we must get out of thegovernment’,” said Nils Diederich, professor at the Free University inBerlin.One opinion poll published last month showed the AfD surpassing the SPDfor the first time in a national poll to become the second-strongestparty.The SPD initially vowed to rebuild in opposition, only agreeing to talkson a return to its loveless marriage with Merkel after her negotiationswith two smaller parties collapsed in November, plunging Germany intopolitical uncertainty.To stop the SPD from bolting, Merkel must deliver on those points in thecoalition deal that are most dear to the Social Democrats: healthcarereform, and investment in education to meet the challenges of thedigital age.Like French President Emmanuel Macron, who is pushing for “a Europe thatprotects”, the SPD wants to promote economic stability and socialconvergence through the European project.Kevin Kuehnert, head of the SPD’s Jusos youth wing who campaigned for a‘No’ vote, is ready to call out any delay in implementing the hard-woncoalition deal, which envisages eurozone reforms in partnership withFrance.“Criticism of the grand coalition remains,” he tweeted after the ballotresult. “The SPD needs to be more like it has been in recent weeks andless like it has been in recent years — the Jusos will ensure this.”To her right, Merkel, 63, also faces pressures from her own camp.Her weakness on the refugee issue has forced the chancellor to name JensSpahn, her biggest critic within the conservative bloc, as healthminister in the new government.Spahn, 37, wants to make the AfD “superfluous” by winning back voters onthe right. He is also widely seen as ambitious, with an eye onsucceeding Merkel, though he says he supports her as chancellor for thefull parliamentary period.Illustrating his lukewarm support for the new tie-up with the SPD, hedescribed the coalition agreement this week as “no furious firework ofinnovation”.Josef Joffe, publisher-editor of weekly Die Zeit, questioned whetherMerkel would last out the full parliamentary term to 2021, “or whethershe will be forced to hand over leadership to a younger CDU generationin two years.”“Those who want to get rid of Merkel will try pull the party to right inorder to recapture those voters who have defected to the nationalist,anti-immigrant AfD,” he said.Merkel has already sought to head off challengers by appointing closeally Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer to take over as CDU secretary-general,heeding calls from within the party to inject new blood and groom asuccessor.Merkel also wants to serve a full, fourth term, rather than yield before her time is up.Asked last month if she saw Kramp-Karrenbauer as a possible successor,Merkel dodged the question, replying: “We have our hands full managingthe business of the day.” – Reuters