Capitalising on climate unity

When Donald Trump was elected US president a year ago, some said the endof the Paris climate agreement was nigh. Yet, as the latest round ofglobal climate talks in Bonn, Germany, has shown, the world’s politicalleaders are more committed to the deal than ever. This is good news, butthe fact remains that countries’ commitments do not yet add up toenough to turn the tide – and our window of opportunity to acteffectively on climate change is rapidly closing.Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States – the world’s largesthistorical carbon dioxide emitter – from the Paris agreement dealt theaccord a major blow. Many of America’s closest allies – including bothof our countries, the Marshall Islands and Australia – were deeplydisappointed by the move, which was shortsighted, for both America andthe world.But it is hard not to take heart from the fresh wave of global resolveTrump’s decision has unleashed, both globally and within the US itself.Almost every major US state, city, and company has now pledged to domore to ensure that their country can meet its commitments, despite theTrump administration’s opposition.The fact that climate action is now the world’s biggest economicopportunity has certainly helped. According to the Trumpadministration’s own analysis, more than twice as many Americans are nowworking in the solar industry than in coal, oil, and gas combined. Andearlier this year, the OECD indicated that we could boost global growthby 5% per year by 2050, simply by linking the climate and growthagendas.There is no time to waste; climate change has already arrived. Thisyear’s record-breaking drought in the Marshall Islands, apocalypticstorms in the Caribbean, and devastating floods in Bangladesh and the USdemonstrate this.As the United Nations Environment Programme recently reminded us, evenif every country hits its existing 2030 emissions-reduction targets, wewill be unable to limit warming to below 1.5° Celsius abovepreindustrial levels – the threshold, recognised in the Paris agreement,beyond which the impact of climate change becomes far greater. Ourchances even of staying within the more conservative – and dangerous –2C limit will be slim.To ignore this reality is to gamble with the existential future of manyisland countries, not to mention the prosperity of the global economy.Without a sharp rise in global ambition for emissions reductions by2020, we will be unable to save the world’s most vulnerable countries.And if runaway climate change takes hold, no country will be immune toits effects.Unfortunately, things will get a lot worse before they get better. Thatis why we must step up our efforts to boost our resilience to theclimate effects we won’t be able to avoid, and address the associatedsecurity consequences.In the meantime, we must urgently increase the ambition of our climatecommitments. Fortunately, several upcoming events offer an opportunityto do just that. We need to seize that opportunity with both hands.Next month, French President Emmanuel Macron will host a conference tomark the two-year anniversary of the Paris agreement. And nextSeptember, California Governor Jerry Brown will host his own summit togalvanise greater action by cities, companies, and other non-stateactors. The biggest opportunity, however, will come in 2019, when UNSecretary-General Ant?nio Guterres convenes world leaders in New Yorkfor the biggest climate gathering since the Paris talks.We need to build an arc of ambition across these events that can, in thewords of our friend Tony de Brum, the late Marshallese foreign ministerand untiring climate warrior at the Paris conference, deliver a pathwayto survival for the most vulnerable.Some significant players are already going above and beyond theirpledges. A number of others, including the Marshall Islands, are set tobring forward new targets by 2020, to augment their current targets,which reach only as far as 2025. Still others – including France, India,and New Zealand – have said informally that they are eager to do more.The truth is that almost all countries have the capacity to do more,especially if the support is there and the opportunities are identified.The imperative now is to create the right political conditions both tomotivate and facilitate action. As more countries signal their abilityto increase the ambition of their commitments, still more will follow.At the same time, we must ensure that every sector, as well as everycountry, does its fair share. This includes, for example, internationalshipping, which, if it were a country, would be the world’ssixth-largest emitter.Next year’s “Talanoa Dialogue” – to be convened by Fiji, which last weekbecame the first island state to chair UN climate talks – will helpcountries identify exactly how they can achieve the goals set in theParis agreement. That dialogue, which countries should approach in goodfaith, must be a springboard for further action. To that end, the recentIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report laying out pathwaysfor keeping the temperature rise below the 1.5C threshold will becrucial. The science remains key. The Paris talks proved that political success is possible, if leadersare given the right platform, if civil society mobilises behind them,and if the world acts in unison. To get the rest of the way to asustainable future, we must apply this lesson again. The catchphrase atthe Bonn conference was “further, faster, and together.” Our collectivechallenge is to translate a nice-sounding slogan into reality. – ProjectSyndicate* Hilda Heine is President of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. KevinRudd, the 26th prime minister of Australia, is currently President ofthe Asia Society Policy Institute.