Mr Trump goes to China

US President Donald Trump is spending nearly two weeks in Asia, visitingJapan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Putting Chinaat the centre of the trip makes sense, because it constitutes the mostimportant stop in both strategic and economic terms.North Korea will dominate much of the conversation when Trump is inChina, in large part because he is counting on Chinese leaders to solvethe North Korea problem for the United States. This approach isunderstandable, because the bulk of North Korea’s trade transits Chineseterritory, and China could exert enormous pressure on the North if itso chose.But Trump will likely come away disappointed. China will resistdeploying its full leverage, lest it undermine North Korea’s stabilityand end up worse off as a result. The irony and potential tragedy ofChina’s position is that allowing North Korea to increase and improveits nuclear and missile arsenals could fuel momentum toward war, or leadSouth Korea, Japan, or both to reconsider their non-nuclear postures.Any of these outcomes would be inconsistent with Chinese strategicinterests; but, like many governments, China’s leaders will seek toavoid difficult decisions in the short run, even if this results indamaging outcomes over time.The North Korea problem is but one of many on the Sino-US agenda, whichincludes other geopolitical matters (most notably, the situation in theSouth China Sea and the status of Taiwan). There are also economicissues that need to be addressed, such as China’s failure to respectintellectual property, its large government subsidies to export-orientedfirms, its restriction of access to its market, and its efforts torequire foreign firms doing business in China to transfer advancedtechnology to Chinese firms.The list of issues dividing these two important and powerful countriesis thus long and difficult, reinforcing the pessimism of those whopredict that the bilateral relationship will continue to sour. One ofthe arguments that the pessimists marshal is the historical patternwhereby rising and established powers tend to end up competing with oneanother, or even fighting.One recent book, by the Harvard political scientist Graham Allison,focuses on the so-called “Thucydides Trap,” named for the ancient Greekhistorian who chronicled the competitive relationship that ultimatelyproduced the Peloponnesian War between a rising Athens and Sparta, thesuperpower of its day. Allison portrays China and the US in these roles,and calls his book Destined for War.Such predictions are unwarranted. They discount the dampening effect ofnuclear weapons, which for more than four decades helped keep the ColdWar between the US and the Soviet Union from turning hot. They alsooverlook the ability of the US and China to finesse their disagreementover Taiwan. Diplomacy can and will matter; little is inevitable ininternational relations.Indeed, the US and China have managed to keep their ties on a relativelyeven keel, despite the disappearance of the original rationale fortheir relationship – shared antipathy toward the Soviet Union – when theCold War ended a quarter-century ago. The extensive economicrelationship that has evolved since then has given both countries astake in maintaining good relations. And, given China’s need forexternal stability to pursue economic development, its leaders haveacted with considerable restraint.Still, the pessimists’ concerns cannot be dismissed. After all,countries often fail to act in their own self-interest, or events simplyspin out of control. For example, Chinese leaders may be tempted to act more assertively toplacate public opinion amid a slowing economy, and to take advantage ofopportunities created by a US that has retreated from regional tradeaccords.The stakes are high, as the history of the 21st century will be affectedin no small part by the character of the Sino-American relationship.Trump, who vacillates between tough criticism of China over trade andencomiums to President Xi Jinping, will have to balance pressing hislegitimate concerns over trade with the need to avoid starting a tradewar. And Xi will have to judge what he can give to satisfy his Americanvisitor without jeopardising his or the Party’s standing in the eyes ofthe Chinese people.North Korea, though, will be the biggest test. Trump and Xi must find away to defuse the looming crisis on the Korean Peninsula – or manage theconsequences should diplomacy fail and war erupt. In the latterscenario, it would be essential that a second Korean War not lead todirect US-Chinese combat, as the first one did. And co-operation wouldbe essential to maintain control over North Korea’s nuclear materials.All of this will require deft diplomacy. Trump and Xi, one sincerelyhopes, will soon be laying the groundwork for it. – Project Syndicate* Richard N Haass is president of the Council on Foreign Relations andauthor of A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis ofthe Old Order.