Virginia a key test for Republicans

Adecade before Donald Trump upended national politics, Ed Gillespie wasamong the establishment Republicans counselling his party’s candidatesto tread gently on the issue of immigration or risk ruination byalienating Latinos.Now he is Virginia’s Republican nominee forgovernor, sounding remarkably like Trump as he speaks from a haybale-laden stage at the Washington County fairgrounds in southwestVirginia. The president won 75% of the vote in this part of the state,and Gillespie is trying to prove that an establishment Republican stillcan succeed under the shadow of Trump.“Do we need to have sanctuarycities here in Virginia?” Gillespie asked the crowd, raising an issue hehas highlighted in ads that feature heavily tattooed Latinos andthreats of menacing gangs.“No, we don’t!” the crowd shouted back, and he added firmly: “No, we don’t.”Theads are not subtle. “MS-13’s motto is Kill. Rape. Control,” blares one.“Ralph Northam’s policy? Northam cast the deciding vote in favour ofsanctuary cities that let illegal immigrants who commit crimes back onthe street, increasing the threat of MS-13.”Northam, the state’slieutenant governor and the Democratic candidate, did vote against a banon sanctuary cities in a procedural move engineered by his Republicanopponents. But Virginia does not have any sanctuary cities, and thosethat exist elsewhere do not allow immigrants arrested for major crimesback on the street.Gillespie portrayed a very different image a daylater at a high school in Nokesville, an exurb in Northern Virginia, theregion whose booming growth has propelled the state to a persistentblue tint in recent elections. He cited his father’s journey fromIreland as an 8-year-old as he defended young immigrants brought here bytheir parents and protected until recently by a programme Trump hasrescinded.While his father immigrated legally, Gillespie said, young immigrants brought here without proper papers should not be punished.“Theydid not make that decision” to cross the border, he told about 1,500members of an interfaith group at a joint appearance with Northam. “Theyshould not be deported.”Both parties’ candidates have balancingacts to pursue in advance of the election here, now just over two weeksaway. Both acts involve Trump.Northam must find a way to keepturnout high among minorities and liberals, riled up by the president,without turning off more moderate voters. Gillespie’s problem, one thatmany Republicans will face in the year ahead, is to reinvent himself as acandidate for the Trump era.Gillespie’s sanctuary city ads are partof a strategy meant to prove that winning is still possible forcandidate who by most definitions should be out of favour among hisparty’s most avid activists. His gamble is that he can adopt just enoughof Trump’s message to satisfy the president’s GOP supporters whilecreating enough distance to placate everyone else.The strainsometimes shows: Speakers at the Washington County event emphasisedtheir grievances against former president Barack Obama rather thandelving deeply into Gillespie’s background. That is because Gillespie isprecisely what Trump ran against - a legendary Washington lobbyist, aformer counsellor to president George W Bush and chairman of theRepublican National Committee, a lifelong representative of a partyestablishment that Trump has done his best to demolish.Trump may begenerally unpopular in Virginia, but he still looms large, as he doeseverywhere else, whether the candidates like it or not.“I feel likeit’s a referendum on President Trump,” said Cornell Williams, a37-year-old high school administrator who lives in Prince WilliamCounty, a key decider in Virginia elections. He described Trump’spresidency as an exhausting “circus sideshow.”“The presidential election took so much energy,” he said. “A lot of people are dealing with the aftermath.”ForRepublican candidates in contested states like Virginia, the fact thateverything revolves around Trump raises two vexingly opposite scenarios:Every day brings the potential for a Trump tempest that could alter theelection by riling Democrats – or by energising Republicans.So far,Gillespie has publicly ignored Trump even as he’s borrowed many of thepresident’s favourite themes – or, as Democratic Governor TerryMcAuliffe put it at a Northam rally in Richmond on Thursday, he hastreated “the president of his party like a communicable disease.” Trumpendorsed him via a pair of tweets, an alliance Gillespie seldom talksabout, although he welcomed Vice-President Mike Pence to WashingtonCounty.On the other side, Northam’s lead feels less comfortable than Democrats might have hoped.Mostoften, Virginia elects governors of the party that lost thepresidential contest the year before. No Republican has won atop-of-the-ticket statewide race since 2009. (Virginia elects itsgovernor every four years, for a single term.) The last threepresidential elections have gone to Democrats, with Hillary Clintonwinning by more than 5 points.But to nervous Democrats, a moreimportant factor is the huge drop-off in turnout between presidentialcontests and state races. According to the Virginia Department ofElections, 72% of registered voters cast ballots in 2016. In the lastgovernor’s race, in 2013, only 43% voted. The smaller electorate isgenerally older and more conservative, like one that helped Gillespienearly knock off Democratic Sen. Mark Warner in 2014.The need byDemocrats to pull in younger and more diverse voters - particularlyAfrican-Americans - brought Obama to the Richmond rally.“Electionsmatter. Voting matters,” he told the rapturous crowd. “You can’t takeanything for granted. You can’t sit this one out.”Earlier in thecampaign, as he worked to dispatch a challenger in the Democraticprimary, Northam, a paediatric neurologist and Army veteran, harshlycondemned Trump, calling him a “narcissistic maniac.” He has now turnedto a more congenial argument.“If Donald Trump is helping Virginia,I’ll work with him,” he says in an ad cycling endlessly on the state’sairwaves. “But Donald Trump has proposed cutting Virginia schoolfunding, rolling back our clean air and water protections and takingaway healthcare from thousands of Virginians. I’ve stood up to DonaldTrump on all of it. Ed Gillespie refuses to stand up to him at all.”Northamalso has used a familiar set of social issues to assail Gillespie. Onead aimed at female voters features audio of Gillespie declaring, “Iwould like to see abortion be banned.” (Aides said Gillespie continuesto support exceptions for rape, incest or threat to the life of themother.) Since the Las Vegas shooting, Northam also has called forrestrictions on assault weapons - a position not shared by Gillespie.Thegun issue demonstrates how difficult it can be to merge two distinctvoter blocs. In the suburbs of Northern Virginia, gun control ispopular. In Trump strongholds, gun rights are inviolate.“Preserveour history, protect the Second Amendment, preserve our values,”paramedic James Bardinelli of Bristol, Va, said when asked what he sawin Gillespie. Bardinelli was helping a friend sell merchandise at theWashington County event; the best-selling item was a navy sweatshirtpromoting a 2020 ticket: “Trump NRA.”For both sides, the stakes arehigh, said Stephen Farnsworth, a presidential scholar at the Universityof Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Va.“The Trump people are goingto want to show that Trump is an asset to the Republican Party,” hesaid. “And the Democrats would like to show that he is not.” - TribuneNews Service