ANC seeking to ‘self-correct’ at policy meeting

South Africa’s ruling ANC party will look to “self-correct” at a six-day meeting starting today, a senior official said after a series of bruising scandals and fierce criticism of President Jacob Zuma.Zuma has been engulfed by graft allegations and humiliating court rulings while grappling with record unemployment and an economy that has dipped into recession.The African National Congress (ANC), which led the fight against apartheid, has ruled South Africa since Nelson Mandela won the first multi-racial elections in 1994.But the party faces tricky elections in 2019, and could lose its grip on power as many South Africans grow increasingly frustrated at lack of progress since the end of white-minority rule.“Economic growth, radical social transformation, land reform, education, fighting crime ... have been identified as our priorities for the meeting,” ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe told reporters yesterday. “But most importantly it will be an opportunity to self-correct.”Zuma, who is due to step down as ANC head in December and as president ahead of the 2019 election, has faced outspoken criticism from senior party figures, including Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa.Zuma is seen as favouring his ex-wife, former African Union (AU) chief Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, to succeed him – rather than Ramaphosa.The meeting should offer clues to who may be in the ascendant.“The conference will be a key event this year, with policy change used to drive a factional wedge in the party on macro, land reform and financial sector transformation,” said Nomura emerging market analyst Peter Attard Montalto. “We expect it to represent the real starting gun for factional alignments into December’s elective conference.”The battle for the party leadership is likely to dominate policy discussions at the venue in south Johannesburg.The meeting “takes place against the backdrop of unprecedented factionalism, infighting and political fracturing in the century-old liberation movement”, said analyst Marius Oosthuizen, writing in the Business Day newspaper.Zuma is due to give the opening address this morning.He has been accused of being in the sway of the wealthy Gupta business family, allegedly granting them influence over government appointments, contracts and state-owned businesses.He is also fighting a court order that could reinstate almost 800 corruption charges against him over an arms deal in the 1990s.The Constitutional Court last year found the president guilty of violating the constitution after he refused to repay taxpayers’ money used to refurbish his private rural house.Zuma’s sacking of respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan in March fuelled public anger over his time in office.The dismissal of Gordhan saw the Fitch ratings agency as well as Standard and Poor’s cut South Africa’s sovereign credit rating to junk status due to fears of political instability and corruption.The ANC won just 55% in last year’s local elections, its worst-ever result.Analysts mostly think the party will hold together, although a breakaway is possible should Dlamini-Zuma lose in December.Dlamini-Zuma’s camp is expected to push for the expropriation of land without compensation and greater black ownership of businesses as part of a broader drive to defeat the “enemy” of “white monopoly capital”.The government says only 8mn hectares of arable land has been transferred to black people since 1994, less than 10% of the 82mn hectares available and a third of the ANC’s 30% target.Dlamini-Zuma’s supporters also want to clip the wings of the central bank so that it focuses its mandate on growth, not inflation, and to reform the banking sector to promote black interests, including the creation of a state bank.Ramaphosa’s supporters also prioritise wealth redistribution but believe the best strategy is through reforms that grow the economy, encourage investment, create jobs and tackle the corruption that has plagued the ANC under Zuma.Many investors and ANC members in Ramaphosa’s camp are concerned Dlamini-Zuma would continue in the mould of her ex-husband.She says opponents are trying to use her past to undermine her credibility.Ramaphosa has warned ANC members that if corruption and infighting rife under Zuma are not tackled, the party will be unable to arrest the decline that saw it lose control of major cities in local elections last year.An opposition coalition led by the Democratic Alliance, a traditionally white party that is becoming more inclusive, says it is confident of unseating the ANC at an election in 2019.“Cyril’s main argument to grassroots ANC members is: if you don’t choose me, the economy will collapse and we’ll lose in 2019 and you’ll have nothing,” a senior ANC source told Reuters. “The question is if he can win that ideological argument against an opponent with attractive populist policies and Zuma’s well-established party patronage system.”Dlamini-Zuma, who has the support of Zuma and his powerful grassroots Zulu ANC support base, has accused her opponents of being “anti-transformation” and too cosy with rich whites.A medical doctor and health minister under Mandela, Dlamini-Zuma has support in rural areas where Zuma is strong.Unionist-turned-business-mogul Ramaphosa has a more urban, middle-class constituency.Zuma has tried to temper fears over land reform, promising there will be no repeat of the chaos triggered by farm invasions in neighbouring Zimbabwe.Any changes would follow parliamentary procedure.A new charter raising the threshold for black ownership in mining companies was criticised by investors and industry players who said it was bullied through without consultation.Signs this month that the central bank’s independence is in question have weakened the rand.Though few major policy changes are expected to be agreed at this week’s meeting, the policy agenda will be watched for clues to whose voice – Ramaphosa’s or Dlamini-Zuma’s – feeds through more clearly in the language.“Leadership will play its part, even if it is an official no-go area,” political analyst Mcebisi Ndletyana said. “Even if there are no specifics, it will be interesting to see the language agreed. We may get some signals as to what is the dominant faction.”