Reuters
Beijing
China is estimated to be holding double the amount of crude in its strategic reserves than its official plan has revealed, as the world’s top energy consumer takes advantage of a dive in prices to strengthen its position in the global oil market.
Based on data compiled by industry and consulting sources, China now has nearly 30 days of stocks to cover crude imports, far ahead of its official schedule showing 15 days.
In the next few years, China’s cover could reach 90 days, equivalent to the target reserves for the West’s main oil importers, including the US, particularly if prices stay weak.
After a 30% drop in oil prices since June, the Opec producer club meets in Vienna today to consider whether to cut output to shore up prices.
Beijing rarely publishes its oil stocks for fear that the knowledge will give sellers an upper hand in price negotiations.
But for the first time last week China revealed it had accumulated 91mn barrels of crude during its first phase of building strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) between 2006 and 2009, equivalent to around two weeks of oil imports.
But a second phase of stockpiling underway and due to be completed by 2020 indicates it has much higher reserves.
Consultancy Energy Aspects estimates that China has already stockpiled 80mn barrels in the second phase. Combined with the first, China would have around 170mn barrels, equivalent to nearly 30 days of forward cover based on its crude imports at 6mn barrels per day (bpd).
“China could buy another 20mn barrels by year end... and in theory could fill over 300mn barrels over the next few years to reach 90 days of forward cover,” said Energy Aspects’ chief oil analyst Amrita Sen, referring to SPR.
The data was in line with estimates from a source at an independent storage provider. Developing the storage capacity for reserves is hugely expensive and a long-term strategy.
To meet a strategic reserves target covering 90 days of imports, analysts estimate China’s SPR capacity will need to rise to around 600mn barrels, around 2.5 half times its commercial storage capacity and 3.5 times its existing SPR level.
China has jumped on two stretches of falling oil prices in the last five years to build up its stocks.
A plunge in prices during the 2009 financial crisis provided the chance to fill reserves in its first SPR phase. In the next phase, four tank projects with a combined 88.1mn capacity have been completed and are estimated to be almost full after the recent fall, analysts said. State oil company China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) is due to complete another 18.9mn barrels of storage in Jinzhou, Liaoning province, by 2016, they said.
Commercial oil storage, built by Sinopec and PetroChina , will add to China’s overall inventories.
PetroChina’s trading arm Chinaoil soaked up an unprecedented 47 cargoes, or 24mn barrels of Middle Eastern crude, last month.
“My bet is the purchases were partly backed by stockpiling - they got a government mandate, or even could have worked their way to convince the government to stock up,” said a China-based trader with knowledge of Chinaoil’s trading strategy.
Refinery sources said about half of this would end up in storage, adding that Chinaoil may strike again should prices remain low.