UK teeters on brink of break-up

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond with Yes Scotland’s chairman, Dennis Canavan on the Vote Yes campaign trail in Stirling, Scotland, yesterday. On Thursday, Scottish voters  are to vote on whether or not to leave the United Kingdom after more than 300 years of union.

By Helen Livingstone/London

Scottish voters are on Thursday to take part in one of the most momentous decisions in British history, when they vote on whether or not to leave the United Kingdom after more than 300 years of union.

Almost 4.3mn people, representing 97% of those eligible, have registered to vote, and turnout is predicted to be the highest of any British election since the 1990s.

The stakes are high and political leaders in London have become increasingly jittery as what appeared to be a solid lead for the pro-unionists has melted away over the past month.

“I’ve been so startled by what has happened over the last four or five weeks, I’m genuinely unable to say what’s going to happen,” said Peter Kellner, president of You Gov opinion pollsters.

A 22-point lead over the pro-independence campaign at the beginning of August has shrunk to a four-point lead, according to You Gov’s most recent poll, published just six days before the referendum.

The increase in support for a “yes” to independence vote has been widely attributed to the success of Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond in allaying fears over what would happen to the economy.

Writing in the Daily Record, Salmond, leader of the devolved government in Edinburgh, said his campaign had seen a “flourishing of national self-confidence” despite the “miserable scaremongering” of the “no” campaign.

One of the biggest debates has been over the pound. In February, the three main British parties issued a joint warning that there would be no currency union with an independent Scotland, despite Salmond’s demands for one.

“Even with the original currency intervention in the middle of February there was widespread feeling, certainly amongst ‘yes’ voters, of ‘they’re bluffing’. And those numbers have increased,” John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University in Glasgow, said.

After polls last week showed the vote on a knife edge, British Prime Minister David Cameron led party leaders in a last-minute campaign charge to Scotland.

They also put on a rare show of unity to back a plan to give new powers to Scotland - which voted for the re-establishment of a Scottish parliament in 1997 - should it reject independence.

The move was widely regarded as a sign of panic in Westminster.

The British government has repeatedly insisted that it has made no contingency plans for the event of a “yes” vote, apparently confident that Scots will in the end prefer the devil they know to the uncertainty of independence.

The past week has seen increased speculation about what the consequences of a Scottish exit would mean for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, or what has been dubbed rUK for “Rump” UK.

“If Scotland votes yes, the jigsaw of British politics is going to be kicked off its coffee table, thrown up in the air, and nobody knows how the pieces will fall,” said Curtice.

One of the first victims would likely be Cameron himself.

Despite his insistence that he will not resign, it would be difficult for him to remain the leader of what is officially the Conservative and Unionist party, following the loss of a third of the UK’s landmass and a tenth of its population.

Perhaps more importantly it would plunge Britain into political and economic instability for the next decade.

“The first thing it will mean for England is a terrible, terrible humiliation, a terrible loss of confidence, domestically and internationally,” said Rory Stewart, a Scot who represents an English constituency in Westminster.

“Secondly it will be 10 years of Britain turned in on itself,” he continued. “We will waste the next decade arguing about tiny interior arrangements; currency, debt, border controls ... at a time when we should be looking out to the world.”

Polls open at 7am (0600 GMT) on Thursday and close at 10pm. Results are expected early on Friday.