Polls from April 7; results May 16

Agencies/New DelhiIndia’s mammoth parliamentary election will start on April 7, authorities announced yesterday, kicking off a race that pits charismatic Bharatiya Janata Party leader Narendra Modi against the unpopular ruling Congress Party. Chief Election Commissioner V S Sampath said 814mn people had registered to vote, a number larger than the population of Europe, making this the biggest election the world has ever seen. Results are due to be announced on May 16. Voting will be held in nine stages, staggered until May 12, to allow security forces to be effectively deployed during an exercise that has often been marred by violence, ballot-rigging and buying votes. “Credible elections conducted at regular, prescribed intervals are the very soul, or hallmark, of any democratic system,” Sampath said, adding that he was particularly concerned about over-spending by candidates and parties. “The use of money power is a matter of concern for the Election Commission,” he said. Indian politicians frequently spend well beyond permissible limits, set at a maximum of Rs7mn ($113,000) for most constituencies, and clampdowns by “flying squads” in previous polls have yielded suitcases of cash. Since the last national election in 2009, about 100mn people have been added to the electoral rolls, in part reflecting the country’s growing young population. Modi has emerged in opinion polls as the favourite to head the next government, buoyed by his strong economic track record as chief minister of Gujarat and reflecting popular anger over corruption as well as a sense that the Congress government has frittered away opportunities for rapid growth. Exuding self-confidence, Modi has won the support of many middle-class Indians who even a year ago would not have voted for a man accused by critics of failing to stop, or even tacitly encouraging, a spasm of Hindu-Muslim bloodshed in Gujarat in 2002. Modi has denied any wrongdoing and the Supreme Court has said there is not enough evidence to pursue investigations. “I think everyone is looking for strong leadership. This places Modi at an advantage. He’s showing that he’s a strong leader,” said Mohan Guruswamy of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, a Delhi-based think-tank. With half of India’s population under 25, a record number of first-time voters will participate in the election. Many appear open to Modi’s promises of job creation and efficient government. “There was so much corruption with Congress, scam after scam,” said Ravinder, a 19-year-old business administration student attending a Modi rally in the heartland state of Uttar Pradesh on Sunday. “Now we see hope, there is someone talking about development, and he seems sincere.” However, India’s fragmented political landscape and first-past-the-post system for parliamentary seats makes results notoriously hard to predict, and that means a victory is by no means assured for Modi’s BJP. Recent polls show the BJP well short of a majority of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament, at stake, but widening its lead over Congress, which has ruled for more than two-thirds of the 67 years since independence but may now be headed for its worst-ever electoral defeat. A multi-headed group of regional parties is also eyeing power, however, a reflection of the growing clout of state-based leaders. A ‘third front’ government made up of regional groups with diverse agendas could prove unwieldy, a potential problem for Asia’s third-largest economy, whose growth has skidded due to the slow pace of reform on the Congress Party’s watch. Leading the campaign for the Congress is party vice president Rahul Gandhi, the latest in line in the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty that has given India three prime ministers and its most powerful contemporary politician, his mother, Sonia Gandhi. This time, after two consecutive Congress-led governments headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, India seems unlikely to make another Gandhi prime minister. Adding to the uncertainty, a new anti-corruption party has emerged as a serious player. The Aam Aadmi Party is not likely to win many seats, but is setting the agenda for other parties by harping on high utility prices and crony capitalism. Modi said the election was a “historic opportunity” to lay the foundation for a “developed India.” He asked people to “make the right choice.”The Gujarat chief minister added: “I call upon the people of India to bless us, give the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) a majority and make Mission 272+ a grand reality for the prosperity of India.”The reference was to the number that would give a party or a coalition a majority in the lower house. The Congress rubbished the BJP’s victory claim.Congress leader and Law Minister Kapil Sibal said the BJP’s dream of winning would turn out to be a dream – similar to 2004 and 2009 when it lost to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).The AAP said it was confident of taking on both the BJP and the Congress despite having taken birth only in November 2012.“We will give a good fight to the Congress and the BJP,” Aam Aadmi Party spokesman Nagendra Sharma said.