A trying time for Congress, turning point for Rahul

Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi was not officially anointed prime ministerial candidate at the AICC session last week, but he was unambiguously asked to lead the party’s crucial electoral battles ahead. While the elevation leaves no one in doubt who would be its next PM if ever the Congress secures the magic number, it may help deflect the blame from Rahul if the party faces an electoral reverse, as is predicted widely. That might allow the scion of the Gandhi family a chance to live and fight another day.

It was Congress president Sonia Gandhi, who, claiming tradition, vetoed the clamour from most of her party leaders and refused to give in to widespread expectations of her party men to name Rahul as PM nominee. This may be seen as a clever move calculated to minimise the party’s trauma in what looks like a tough election ahead and also as a tactical stroke to thwart the game plan of BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi to make the elections into a presidential form of contest between himself and Rahul Gandhi.

Sonia’s unusually strident refusal may be a passable damage-limitation exercise, but there are some problems with the logic as it betrays a mindset that is defensive in the extreme and the mentality of an outfit in disarray. The Congress, facing a 10-year-old anti-incumbency, is imperilled today. Predictions are that it might sink to its lowest-ever tally in this year’s elections. Blame it on poor governance, unfulfilled promises, failing economy or corruption galore, but there is no denying the dismal forecast.

But then this is no reason to give up. Rahul’s speech, at the AICC, showcasing his feisty and combative side and expressing his newfound resolve to lead from the front, emits a sort of fire in his belly. The Congress leader, so far viewed as an unwilling recruit to power politics, has at last come across looking both confident and determined to lead the party out of the morass it has sunk itself into in recent years. His transition from hesitant dabbler in leadership to full-time politician augurs well for the party. A hunger to win can do magic as politics is an unpredictable game.

The Congress, which dominated Indian popular mind for decades, is now past its best and has been almost passive, lacking the firepower to take on the opponents. Sonia Gandhi has always been reticent in attacking. Manmohan Singh, the two-time premier, is gentle by nature and accepts his failures and seeks understanding of the limitations under which he operates. These are fine virtues but not the sort of thing that sets election campaigns on fire.

On the other hand, the opposition and the media have been relentlessly targeting the Congress and its leaders. The BJP election machine had gone into full gear long before the Congress woke up and every other day Modi mounts a personal and biting attack on the Gandhis. They have, of course, plenty of materials to play with. The Congress has been passively absorbing the blows.

Workers and candidates must have been looking up to the Congress for a change in its strategy. The signal for change has, however, come now from Rahul when he told Congressmen hours after he was selected to lead the party in its bid for a third shot in power that, “We are warriors, and we will go into battle knowing what we stand for.”

Such rhetoric may adrenalise his demoralised party workers, but he now needs to define his road map for development more clearly.

Even before the formal resolution handing over the baton, Rahul was trying to establish control as well as the superiority of the party over government. Rahul had started dictating policies to the Congress-led central and state governments by issuing directives to the ministers and Congress chief ministers. He has shown he is prepared to take a stand on contentious issues too. He received a lot of flak for his contrarian remarks on the law on preventing criminals from contesting elections. But his will prevailed.

More recently, the party and government took an exceptionally strong anti-US line over the inhuman treatment meted out to an Indian diplomat after Rahul made his views public. His firm position on the Adarsh Society scam, publicly rebuking the Congress-led Maharashtra government for rejecting the report of the judicial commission could be seen as an attempt to outline himself as a rebel and a leader who wields the stick and the broom within his party. From now on, he can do so with greater legitimacy and authority.

Arguably, the most important aspect of his speech was the indirect admission that the Congress suffered from in-built biases against party workers. Common people should be able to walk into politics, and to take the Congress into the 21st century necessarily meant listening to ordinary party workers. This won him the biggest applause. Speeches are only a part of politics. But elections are a different ball game altogether, and more is needed than just speeches to make a difference to his party’s fortunes in the battle of ballots.

When 2013 began and Rahul was made vice-president of the party amidst great hopes, the expectation was that the 2014 elections would be a Rahul versus Modi contest. But as the year passed and the Delhi assembly results brought to fore the success of Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP party, the Congress is relegated to the third position and the contest is being seen as Modi versus Kejriwal now.

Had Rahul cast himself as a game-changer long before the assembly polls and helped execute policies to improve governance, the Congress would have found itself on a better electoral wicket in November and also in the coming general election. What the party must be visibly hoping this time is that its general will stay the course during the few months to the war and will not get back to his hit-and-run escapades.

The immediate challenge for Rahul is to push back Kejriwal and check Modi. He should have had the advantage of a 128-year-old pan-India organisation behind him, but the anti-incumbency has intensified after the party’s rout in the recent state elections. He takes over as the helmsman of India’s grand old party at a very trying time in its history. It is also a turning point for Rahul as the whole world waits to see what he does to turn the tide for his party in the short span of time at his disposal.