Syrian conflict strains Lebanon’s political system

Politically paralysed by deep divisions exacerbated by the war in neighbouring Syria, Lebanon is likely to see a continuing cycle of political violence. On Thursday, four people were killed in a bomb blast in a southern Beirut stronghold of the powerful Hezbollah movement, a key ally of Damascus, less than a week after the assassination of a prominent critic of the Syrian regime.

The attacks were the latest in a string of incidents linked to the Syrian conflict that have strained Lebanon’s fragile multi-sectarian political system. The effects have been far-reaching for Lebanon’s political scene, traditionally fractious but now increasingly dysfunctional. The government effectively collapsed nine months ago, with the resignation of the prime minister, and lengthy negotiations on the formation of a consensus replacement have gone nowhere.

Parliamentary elections have been postponed, and there are doubts about whether a presidential vote scheduled for May will go ahead.

At the root of the tensions lies a deep division between Hezbollah and the so-called March 14 coalition, established in the wake of the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. The split has only widened with Hezbollah’s decision to fight alongside Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad against an uprising that is supported by many Lebanese Sunnis.

Since the war in Syria began, Hezbollah has seen its southern Beirut stronghold targeted in three bomb attacks, along with a double suicide bombing that hit the Iranian embassy in Beirut. The attacks illustrate a growing trend of radicalisation in Lebanon fuelled by the Syrian conflict and heightened sectarian rhetoric.

Lebanon fought a civil war between 1975 and 1990 and its delicate sectarian balance is reflected in a complex political arrangement that has regularly generated political crises. In March, prime minister Najib Mikati resigned, effectively bringing down the government, but ongoing disagreements between Hezbollah and the March 14 movement have prevented even the formation of an interim replacement government. Later this year, President Michel Sleiman’s term expires and parliament should be called upon to elect a replacement for the office, which is reserved for a Christian.

But the candidate is usually chosen by consensus, which will be hard to come by in such a polarised environment. Lebanon’s stalemate appears as intractable as Syria’s war. The country will be on hold until after an agreement is reached on Syria.