Abe ‘ruffling’ feathers for reform

This file photo taken on December 26, 2012 shows Shinzo Abe (centre) being applauded by parliament members after he was elected as Japan’s prime minister by the lower house of parliament in Tokyo. A year after a landslide national election, Abe is riding high as his plan to rescue the economy earns praise at home and abroad, but chinks in his armour are beginning to show.

By Takehiko Kambayashi/Tokyo

Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and junior coalition partner New Komeito have strengthened security and defence policy, and pursued aggressive monetary easing, sometimes in the face of negative opinion polls.

Last month, the coalition forced through a new official secrets law despite protests and limited debate.

“Denial of Democracy!” a Tokyo Shimbun newspaper headline called the move, which leaves the definition of “sensitive secret” up to ad hoc decisions by the relevant cabinet minister.

Among the public, 82% want the law revised or abolished, according to a survey by Kyodo News agency.

Abe’s headstrong pursuit of the legislation is typical of the increasingly assertive approach shown by his second premiership, after a brief term in 2006-7.

His government is widely expected to declare nuclear power to be an important part of a long-term energy plan due in January, against public opposition.

Nuclear power, which provided 30% of the country’s electricity before March 2011, has suffered a severe public opinion backlash after that month’s earthquake and tsunami caused explosions, meltdowns and radiation leaks at the Fukushima Daiichi plant 250km north-east of Tokyo.

Public resistance has kept most of the nation’s nuclear plants idle since the disaster. In a consultation under the previous government, about 87% of nearly 90,000 written opinions were in favour of phasing out nuclear power altogether.

“Abe’s government has completely ignored the national debate,” said Kanna Mitsuta, a researcher for environmental group Friends of the Earth Japan.

The premier has met with more immediate approval, and success, for elements of his economic policy.

His campaign pledges included “unlimited” monetary easing to stem the yen’s rise and to pull the world’s third-largest economy out of 15 years of deflation.

Following the central bank’s injections of cash into the economy, the yen has declined 21% against the dollar over the year, making exporters more competitive and boosting their repatriated revenues, and the benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average has gained 53%.

And prices have been up year-on-year every month since June, with October posting a rise of 0.9% over the previous year.

But these results have not translated into rising wages, government surveys show. Critics also point to the increased price in yen for imported goods, including the fossil fuels that now power the electricity grid.

Nor has the country seen any improvement in its declining birth rate or the problem of precarious, or unstable employment, critics say.

In 2012, the proportion of temporary and part-time workers was up for the third straight year to a record 38%, the government said.

The administration also faces criticism for its decision to slash welfare benefits by 67bn yen ($644mn) over three years.

“It is an unprecedented reduction,” said Kenji Utsunomiya, a civil rights lawyer who ran unsuccessfully for Tokyo governor as an independent last year.

He conceded that fewer people will be affected than implied by the media. “Only 1.7% of the population, compared with 9.3% in Britain and 9.7% in Germany,” receive government benefits, he said.

But far more low-income families will be hurt by a planned hike in the sales tax to 5% to 8% in April, he said.

The plan is opposed by a public majority but the government says it is vital to cover swelling social security costs and rein in public debt.

He may be cutting back on benefits, but Abe’s government is splashing on public works projects, up 13% in 2013 to 6tn yen, in the face of accusations of pork-barrel politics from the opposition.

The government is also to boost military expenditure by 2.8% to 5tn yen, including on drones, stealth jets and amphibious assault vehicles, amid tensions with China and South Korea.

The move, and the creation of a US-style National Security Council in late November, are an attempt to “change the pacifist constitution and fight alongside the US,” Japan’s formal military ally, said Minoru Morita, a Tokyo-based analyst.

This will not send the right message to boost Japan’s assertiveness in the region, he said, amid rising tensions around territories in the resource-rich South and East China Seas.

“Japan’s relations with China and South Korea will never improve under Abe while he is so subservient to the US,” he said.

But the real audience for the apparent belligerence may be at home.

“At first, Abe tried to gain popularity with Abenomics,” Morita said. After the patchy success of that initiative, his government “has now shifted to Abe’s militarism,” to rally the public around a revitalised defence policy, he said. - DPA