Scottish voters not for independence, poll finds

Guardian News and Media/London

A majority of Scottish voters are opposed to Alex Salmond’s quest for independence, with most believing it is the wrong priority, according to a series of polls paid for by the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft.

The three polls published include a “super poll” of 10,000 voters earlier this year that showed just a quarter of voters supported independence - with 65% against -  while a second survey found only 36% felt the referendum was the right priority for the Scottish government.

That finding is the largest majority against leaving the UK - detected in opinion polling so far - and the largest sample yet surveyed. It also found 20% of Scottish National Party (SNP) voters opposed independence, with 14% of Labour voters in favour.

Asked what the Scottish government’s top priority should be, more than 40% of voters questioned last month believed the economy and unemployment should be top, with independence in fifth place on 3% support, behind improving the UK health service (NHS), improving schools and welfare reform.

The pro-independence Yes Scotland campaign dismissed the headline referendum results as “wildly out of date”, since the polling on that question was conducted between February and May, and failed to capture the impact of their campaigning over the summer.

A spokesman said it contradicted the Yes Scotland poll by Panelbase released last week which found a narrow 1% lead for independence - the first lead in recent polling.

However, two other polls by TNS - BMRB and YouGov - last week put the yes vote at 25% and 29% respectively, with support for the UK at 47% and 59%.

Ashcroft’s third poll in the batch, carried out last month, appears to show public scepticism about demands for Holyrood to have greater tax-raising and borrowing powers, even though voters were more positive about the effectiveness and trustworthiness of MSPs as opposed to MPs.

In a challenge to the emerging political consensus that Holyrood ought to have greater financial autonomy if Scotland votes to stay in the UK, it found that 59% thought taxes would rise and 46% believed spending would rise, while 42% thought public services would stay the same.

Just 29% thought services would improve with much greater devolution.

In a further setback for Salmond, the super poll recorded his first negative popularity rating.

While a very large majority of voters knew of him and had an opinion about him compared with other Scottish party leaders, 49% of voters had an unfavourable view against 45% favourable.

A former Tory treasury and deputy chairman, Ashcroft has funded polls to test his own scepticism about government policy and his doubts about perceived public attitudes on issues such as immigration, taxation and nuclear weapons.

Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour’s deputy leader and the MP for Glasgow Central, said Ashcroft’s polling reinforced Labour complaints that Salmond’s party had “put Scotland on pause while they focus on breaking up Britain”. He added: “It’s time for Alex Salmond to stop putting the referendum first and Scotland second.”