Venezuela-US ties unlikely to thaw soon

Washington has long hoped that a post-Chavez era could herald a new era in ties with Venezuela, but allegations of a US plot to kill the leftist leader show any rapprochement is still far off.

After a long battle with cancer, President Hugo Chavez died on Tuesday, aged 58, throwing his country’s immediate political future into doubt and leaving the US wondering what lies ahead for the Latin American nation.

Within hours of Chavez’s death, US President Barack Obama said Washington was hoping for “constructive” future ties with the major oil-producing nation.

Caracas and Washington have been operating embassies in each country without an ambassador since a diplomatic spat in 2010.

And it is expected to be business as usual, particularly after Chavez’s anointed heir, Vice President Nicolas Maduro blamed Washington of a conspiracy to kill his mentor and expelled two US Air Force attaches.

US officials have denounced Maduro’s allegation as absurd, but analysts said it highlighted the “very strong ideological affinity for an anti-US agenda” in Venezuela.

Chavez’s leftist “Bolivarian revolution” was a constant source of friction with the US during his 14 years in power. Not only did he habitually slam US “imperialism”, but he also forged alliances with some of the US’ biggest enemies, such as Cuba and Iran.

Relations did not really improve with the election victory of Barack Obama, even if the new US president shook hands with Chavez at a Summit of the Americas.

Chavez handed Obama a book with a suggestive title Open Veins of Latin America: Five Centuries of the Pillage of the Continent, by Eduardo Galeano.

Some analysts, however, believe that Maduro is a more pragmatic man than his rhetoric makes him appear.

His comments on Chavez’s disease could be meant for domestic consumption in the run-up to the elections scheduled to be held within a month’s time.

Maduro, whom Chavez appointed as his successor, is widely expected to win the elections and to become Venezuela’s next president. His trade union background could make him a more flexible negotiator than Chavez, who came from a military background, though.

The Obama administration started laying the groundwork for improving relations well before Chavez underwent his last surgery in December.

The State Department confirmed in January that its Latin America director, Roberta Jacobson, spoke to Maduro in November.

Washington has pegged the possibility of improving relations to measures inspiring “confidence”, such as stepping up co-operation against terrorism and drug trafficking.

The US will also keep a close watch on the elections in Venezuela to make sure they are democratic.

If such conditions are met, the two countries could eventually return their respective ambassadors, who were pulled out in 2010. But it is a big “if”.