| The Reuters survey indicates Opec, source of more than a third of the world’s oil, is producing more than the target of 30mn barrels daily it adopted at a December 14 meeting |
Opec oil output rose in December to the highest since October 2008, a Reuters survey found yesterday, as members showed little sign yet of lowering output to make room for recovering Libyan supplies. Supply from all 12 members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries averaged 30.74mn bpd last month, up from a revised 30.62mn bpd in November, the survey of sources at oil companies, Opec officials and analysts found. The survey indicates Opec, source of more than a third of the world’s oil, is producing more than the target of 30mn barrels daily it adopted at a December 14 meeting, as oil prices well above $100 a barrel provide little incentive for supply cuts. In December, the biggest increase in Opec supply came from Libya, where production continues to recover after being virtually shut down during the uprising which toppled Muammar Gaddafi. “It’s quite surprising how successful the Libyans have been so far,” said Samuel Ciszuk, consultant at KBC Energy Economics. December’s total is Opec’s highest since October 2008, shortly before the group agreed to a series of supply curbs to combat recession, based on Reuters surveys. Libyan oil exports and refinery demand have climbed to 750,000 bpd in December, according to the survey, up 250,000 bpd from November but some way short of the production figures given by Libyan officials. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Opec allies raised production unilaterally in the second half of 2011 after failing to convince other members to agree to a coordinated increase to meet the shortfall in supplies from Libya. Opec settled the six-month-old argument at its December meeting in Vienna meeting by adopting the 30mn bpd target. However, analysts have said that without defined individual national quotas, leakage above the new limit remains very possible. In November, supply from Saudi Arabia was revised 350,000 bpd higher to 9.8mn bpd as it shipped more crude to customers in Asia. In December, output dipped only slightly, according to sources in the survey. “In November, there was a very sharp uptick and what I’m seeing in December is practically no change - a small reduction maybe, but not a significant one,” a shipping industry source said. Kuwait increased production in December and supply nudged higher in the UAE. Sources in the survey have lower estimates of Kuwaiti supply than Kuwaiti industry officials, who say the country is pumping 3mn bpd or more. Venezuelan output also was pegged slightly higher. Major maintenance was completed at the Petroanzoategui heavy crude upgrader in December. Among the countries with reduced output, Angolan shipments declined due to lower exports of crude grades including Girassol and Plutonio. Loading schedules point to steady to lower shipments in January. Nigerian output was trimmed as Royal Dutch Shell shut down output at its offshore Bonga site because of an oil spill.