Political change inevitable in Russia

By Trudy Rubin/Moscow

Police blocking protesters taking part in an anti-Putin rally in Moscow

Vladimir Putin has won his third term in an unfair election and the new Russian opposition seems confused about what to do next.Its first post-election demonstration was much smaller than any of the huge, unprecedented gatherings that erupted in December after a rigged parliamentary ballot.Yet, it would be a mistake to conclude that a brief “Moscow spring” has already ended. A week in chilly Moscow has made me optimistic that political change here is inevitable, whether or not Putin wants it.To paraphrase Bob Dylan: Something is happening, Mr Putin, and you don’t know what it is.Let me explain.First, the generation gap in Russia is stunning. Young Russians from the post-Soviet generation lack the fear and timidity instilled in their parents and grandparents.Example: Journalism student Vera Kechanova, 20, slim, with spectacles and swinging hair, held up this sign when current President Dmitry Medvedev visited her university: “Why do you sit in the Kremlin while (political prisoner) Mikhail Khodorkovsky sits in jail?”I met Kechanova as she rushed into an opposition headquarters that was tallying reports texted by thousands of volunteer election monitors, many of them students, who reported thousands of violations.Unlike many of their elders, they get their news not from state-controlled television, but from online sources; Internet penetration in Russia has jumped from 5% to 43% over the last decade.These young people believe the system can be changed.Second, new young leaders are just emerging.Alexey Navalny, 35, the most promising opposition leader, is a wholly new kind of Russian politician. He came to prominence after mounting a series of Internet investigations of Russia’s staggering official corruption, which undermines the economy and drives many middle-class Russians to leave the country.This project would have been unthinkable a few years ago (and he does receive death threats), but now sources flood Navalny with details. His slogan is: “No to Robbers, No to Thieves, Yes to Citizenship.”Why is Navalny’s campaign  so important? Citizenship (both rights and duties) is a concept that was incomprehensible in Russia until only recently; the state was regarded by most ordinary people as a hostile institution that deserved to be cheated.Now, a new Russian middle class, and its children, wants a society where its property and its children, are safe from predatory officials.“This regime is based on corruption,” Navalny told me, referring to the massive wealth that is funnelled to Kremlin favourites, and the disrespect for law that pervades the system. “I focus on this issue, and that’s why people appreciate my efforts.”The tall, blond Navalny, a counterpart to Putin’s constant display of macho, believes a campaign against corruption and for free elections can rally Russians across the political spectrum.This day may seem far off, as a nascent opposition is still focused on mass rallies. Putin looks more likely to repress the opposition than to engage it.Yet, my third source of optimism stems from a conversation with Mikhail Dmitriev, president of the Centre for Strategic Research, a Moscow think tank that has done some stunning research.In 2009, Dmitriev’s staff observed a startling shift in values among a newly-emergent middle class in Moscow. Many Muscovites had become relatively wealthy after they were permitted to buy their state-owned apartments following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Now, they expressed sharp dissatisfaction with a government that disrespected property rights and demanded endless bribes from small businessmen and car owners.Moreover, the court system was heavily corrupted; those in power could ignore the rules. For the first time ever, the top priority of middle-class Muscovites in the centre’s focus groups was equal treatment before the law.“In mid-2010-2011, the attitude changes were so dramatic that we were amazed,” Dmitriev continued. So much so, that the political landscape of Russia was destined to change permanently. “In 2011, across age groups and regions people started saying, ‘We are not cattle’. This word was never heard before.”It meant Russians wanted to be treated with dignity and respect.Wealthier Muscovites are ahead of the rest of the country in their demand for a fairer system, so it’s not surprising that the opposition is strongest there. Even according to official figures, Putin won less than a majority in the capital, where the Kremlin is located.Putin is still popular in Russia, say the centre’s researchers, but that popularity is now associated with past achievements, not future expectations. Russians are unhappy with their system and looking for new leaders, even if their political savvy is just emerging.“Citizenship in the making,” Dmitriev calls it. Cattle no more.- The Philadelphia Inquirer/MCT

*** Trudy Rubin may be contacted at: trubin@phillynews.com.