Rebel splinter poses risk for peace talks in Philippines Summary

MARVIC

The emergence of a breakaway guerrilla group has called into question what can be achieved at peace talks between the Philippines and country’s main Muslim separatist group that resumed this week after a long break.
The government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) are both optimistic that a workable political deal to end the four-decade insurgency is possible within a year, but the existence of a small splinter group means a deal may not hold.
"The new group of Ustadz Ameril Umbra Kato is a significant force that can challenge peace and stability in Mindanao,” said Rommel Banlaoi, executive director of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research, referring to the commander of the breakaways.
In August 2008, Kato was a key figure behind an outbreak of violence after a deal creating an ancestral homeland for Muslims was nullified by the Supreme Court.
"Kato, who has become a spoiler to the peace process, is a symbol of an evolving threat the Philippine government has to confront,” Banlaoi said.
This has happened before.
The 11,000-strong MILF is itself a breakaway from the Moro National Liberation Front, which signed a deal in 1976 for autonomy with then-dictator Ferdinand Marcos.
However, the new group, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), appears to lack the critical mass and support MILF had when it broke away.
"The biggest danger is probably not Kato, but an overreaction from Manila to his move,” said Sidney Jones, senior advisor to risk consultancy International Crisis Group.
"A splinter group could be dangerous if it had outside support or significant resources, or if it presaged further splintering of the MILF, and this isn’t the case,” she said.
Centred on Mindanao island in the south, the MILF is fighting for self-rule in Muslim-dominated areas in the mainly Roman Catholic state in Southeast Asia.
 The separatist conflict dates back to the late 1960s, and the fighting has hampered growth and investment in deprived but resource-rich areas. More than 120,000 people have been killed and 2mn displaced in the conflict.
 Malaysia has brokered peace talks since 2001. The parties met in Kuala Lumpur earlier in the week for their first official talks since President Benigno Aquino took office last June. Talks are set to be held again in March.
"We are negotiating for a comprehensive political settlement within the soonest possible time,” chief government negotiator Marvic Leonen said. "Implied in this desire is the understanding that both parties can deliver a just and lasting peace.”
Manila has also been negotiating separately with Maoist rebels, with whom talks are set to resume next week in Oslo, to end another long-running insurgency.
"The leadership has effective control over political and military wings of the MILF,” rebel leader Al Haj Murad Ebrahim said last week at its main base in the heart of coconut and corn plantations on Mindanao.
Flanked by dozens of armed followers, wearing camouflage uniform and carrying assault rifles, Murad said the MILF had the support and authority to implement a peace agreement.
"Up to now, the so-called BIFF has not been recognised. It is not a separate organisation but it is a new unit under our armed wing, Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces.”
That poses another question for the military in assessing the legitimacy of the splinter group, said to number about 100.
"We’re still validating reports on the creation of a splinter group within the MILF, because it could be a ploy to allow rebels some flexibility during negotiations,” said Major-General Anthony Alcantara, army division commander in Muslim-dominated areas.
An Islamic preacher who trained in Egypt, Kato led attacks on Catholic-dominated farming communities in central Mindanao in 2008, displacing more than 750,000 people.
International Crisis Group’s Jones believed Kato’s move to organise a separate group was genuine.
 "It is highly unlikely that this is posturing by the MILF,” she said. "Kato’s resentment is real, but it shouldn’t be overblown.” Reuters

Chief Philippine government negotiator Marvic Leonen speaks at a news conference in Manila yesterday. He said he hoped to end the decades-long Muslim separatist rebellion within 12 months