International

Pak central bank leaves interest rates unchanged

Pak central bank leaves interest rates unchanged

February 12, 2012 | 12:00 AM

Pakistan’s central bank governor Yaseen Anwar announces the monitory policy in Karachi yesterday

Pakistan’s central bank left interest rates unchanged for a second meeting as the fastest inflation in Asia after Vietnam curbs scope to ease policy and bolster growth.
The State Bank of Pakistan kept the discount rate at 12%, Governor Yaseen Anwar said at a news conference in Karachi yesterday. Eight of 11 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the decision. Two expected a cut to 11.5% and one to 11%.Pakistan, which joins South Korea and Australia in holding rates this week, faces inflation exceeding 10%, faltering growth following floods in 2010 and 2011 and an insurgency near the Afghan border. The disasters, security risks, elevated price pressures and a budget shortfall have left the economy “highly vulnerable,” the International Monetary Fund has said.“We can’t expect fast moves in these conditions,” Syed Saquib Ali, an economist at Global Securities Pakistan Ltd in Karachi, said before the announcement.“The state of the economy doesn’t justify a rate cut given accelerating inflation, the budget deficit and the declining rupee.”Today’s decision contrasts with Indonesia, which lowered borrowing costs unexpectedly by a quarter point two days ago. Pakistan’s central bank cut rates by 2 percentage points in 2011, joining nations such as China in easing monetary policy as Europe’s debt crisis hampered global expansion. The State Bank subsequently paused in November.“Inflationary pressures have not eased significantly enough,” Anwar said yesterday. “A sustainable economic recovery calls for increased domestic and foreign investment for which business confidence needs to be revived.”Pakistani inflation accelerated to 10.1% in January, the second-fastest pace in a basket of 17 Asia-Pacific economies tracked by Bloomberg, from 9.75% in December.Central bank data shows government borrowing from the monetary authority rose 24% to Rs141.7bn ($1.6bn) from July 1 to January 27 compared with a year earlier.The Pakistan rupee is down about 6% against the dollar in the past year on concern foreign reserves will shrink as international aid dwindles. A continuing decline in the reserves “would be credit negative,” Moody’s Investors Service said this week. Reserves stood at $12.2bn on Feb. 9, according to the central bank.Political risks have also deterred investors, with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani facing a contempt-of-court charge that threatens to force him from office.The IMF said February 6 Pakistan should broaden the tax base, curb some subsidies and curtail central bank financing of a budget gap that may rise to 7% of gross domestic product in the fiscal year ending June. Monetary policy is “too accommodative,” it said.An $11.3bn IMF loan to Pakistan expired in September, with disbursements suspended in May 2010 after the country failed to meet conditions attached to it. The lender forecasts GDP will rise 3.4% in the fiscal year through June.The US, the country’s largest export market and aid provider, held back $800mn in military assistance in July out of $2bn pledged for this fiscal year because of disputes over how to combat terrorism.Floods in August forced more than 1mn people from their homes, while militant attacks have killed at least 35,000 people since 2006, according to estimates from the government.The $175bn economy grew 2.4% in the year through June 2011, one of the smallest expansions in a decade. Bloomberg

February 12, 2012 | 12:00 AM