Business
Oil market is returning to surplus as Gulf exports recover: IEA
Fourth-quarter oil supply to exceed demand by 1.7mn bpd; IEA had previously forecast a fourth-quarter supply deficit; IEA also gives more details of emergency oil stock release
The world oil market will return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, as Middle East exports recover faster than global oil demand despite continued attacks on shipping.
The agency also gave more details of remaining volumes to come from a record release of oil from its members' emergency reserves pledged in March, saying 71mn barrels would be made available by the end of February including 15mn barrels of diesel to ease market tightness.
Oil supply will average 105mn barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the Paris-based agency, which advises industrialised countries, said in a monthly report, 1.7mn bpd higher than forecast demand. The IEA had previously forecast a fourth-quarter supply deficit.
"The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran," the agency said in the report.
Oil prices reversed earlier gains after the IEA report was released at 0900 GMT. Brent crude was last down 0.1% at $95.71 a barrel.
The report follows signs that Gulf oil producers are recovering exports disrupted since the start of the war in late February by using workarounds such as so-called dark crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, where tankers switch off tracking signals to evade attack.
The Opec+ group, which includes the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, pumped 41.23mn bpd of crude in October, Opec said on Wednesday, up about 2.04mn bpd from September and 97% of the pre-war February volume.
Other analysts have also forecast a return to excess supply, despite the lack of a resolution to the Iran war and continuing tanker attacks in the Gulf. JPMorgan last week forecast a global surplus of 1.4mn bpd in October.
High oil prices have also curbed demand this year, helping tip the balance into a surplus. World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.7mn bpd in 2026 to 102.3mn bpd before rebounding by 2mn bpd in 2027, the IEA said, little changed from its previous forecasts.
As well as rising output from Opec+, the IEA flagged supply rising from outside the group.
Production from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana will rise by 1.6mn bpd this year, the IEA said. In 2027, global supply is projected to rise by 6.6mn bpd to 108.1mn bpd, led by a further recovery in Gulf output.
Still, the 2027 supply growth forecast is down 1.1mn bpd from last month's report, and the lower outlook partly reflects a downward revision from Iran, the IEA said. Iran is subject to a US blockade that has curbed its oil exports.
For 2027, the IEA sees the supply surplus at about 3.8mn bpd, slightly down from a 3.94mn bpd surplus last month.