Developments in British politics over the summer indicate that the two main parties – Labour and the Conservatives – may be restoring a degree of balance to a system that had appeared, earlier in 2026, to be more unpredictable than any time in recent history.A change of prime minister from Sir Keir Starmer to Andy Burnham and results in several by-election suggest that the appeal of insurgent parties such as the Greens and Reform UK may have peaked.In addition, the annual party conference season has shown both Labour and the Conservatives to be in confident moods as parliament reconvenes after the long summer recess.The phrase "a week is a long time in politics” is attributed to Harold Wilson, Labour prime minister between 1964 and 1970 and again from 1974 to 1976.His Conservative predecessor, Harold Macmillan, who held office between 1957 and 1963, had his own phrase, "events, dear boy, events” which has entered the lexicon of political sayings.Both have applicability to the rapid turnaround of political fortunes in recent months.Back in the spring, Starmer’s government was floundering, the Conservatives were polling at record low levels, and the rise of Reform UK and the Greens seemed for a time to be unstoppable.In late-February, the Gorton and Denton by-election, caused by the resignation of the incumbent Labour MP, vividly illustrated the surging appeal of the Greens and Reform as they won nearly 70% of the vote between them.Hannah Spencer captured what had been a safe Labour seat with 40.7% of the vote, Reform UK came second with 28.7%, while the Labour share of the vote collapsed by more than 25% and the Conservatives finished a distant fourth with a mere 1.9% which meant the party lost its deposit. Three months later, Reform UK won the most votes in the local elections across the United Kingdom, albeit with only 26% of the vote yet nine points ahead of the Labour Party.The outcome of the local elections on May 7 suggested a period of extended political uncertainty lay ahead.Reform UK appeared to have reached its voter peak at around 26% while four other parties – Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens – were all clustered around a band of between 16% and 18% share.It seemed for a time that the country was moving toward a chaotic five-party political system even without factoring in the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party.Fast forward five months, and the political landscape has altered almost beyond recognition.Pressure from Labour MPs on Starmer to step down finally led to the announcement of his resignation on June 22 and an accelerated contest to select a new leader which led to Burnham winning an uncontested leadership election on July 17.Having returned to the House of Commons, after a nine-year absence, by decisively beating Reform UK in a by-election at Makerfield earlier in July, Burnham almost immediately gained five points in the polls.The revitalisation of an administration hitherto drifting to inevitable defeat was remarkable, and reminiscent of John Major’s transformation of the Conservative government after he replaced Margaret Thatcher as prime minister in November 1990.Labour’s injection of vitality occurred just as Reform UK was experiencing a summer of setbacks largely stemming from a series of media revelations about party donors which raised questions over the judgement of its leader, Nigel Farage.Amid the acres of generally critical news coverage, Farage abruptly resigned his parliamentary seat at Clacton on July 7 and triggered a by-election which descended into farce after all the mainstream parties chose not to field candidates and his main opponent was a man with a bin on his head, who managed to win nearly 27% of the vote.Farage returned to parliament weakened by what was widely seen as a cynical political stunt and still faces the findings of an investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards into an undeclared gift.It is against this backdrop that the most recent by-election, in the London constituency of Holborn and St Pancras, took place on October 8, to fill the seat vacated by Starmer after he followed his resignation as prime minister by standing down as an MP as well.The results confirmed the shifting balance in political fortunes as Labour comfortably held the seat and the much-vaunted challenge by the Green Party leader, Zach Polanski, fell significantly short, as he finished 13 points behind his Labour counterpart, Sagal Abdi-Wali.Meanwhile, in pushing Reform UK into fourth place, the Conservatives managed to finish about Reform in a parliamentary by-election in England for the first time since 2024.This built upon a party conference that was widely seen as a success for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.Both Labour and the Conservatives therefore feel more confident that they have regained a measure of control over the challenges from their left and right, respectively, as the prospect of the mainstream parties being outflanked has receded, at least for now.Ironically, it is Reform UK that now faces a challenge from its right from Restore Britain, a far-right party formed by a disaffected MP originally elected to parliament as a Reform MP in 2024.Reform and Restore have split the right-of-centre vote in several recent elections and there may be an opportunity for the Conservatives to regain voters from Reform if the latter tries to move even farther to the right to compete with Restore.Only time will tell whether Burnham’s bounce in the polls is the temporary uplift of a new face in power or the start of something more significant.Major’s bounce in 1990 carried him to an unexpected general election victory in April 1992 but a similar boost to Gordon Brown when he succeeded Tony Blair in June 2007 proved to be short-lived.With the next general election not due until 2029, there is still time for the puzzle to shift once again.
• The writer is a leading scholar specialising in Gulf politics and international political economy, and a fellow at the Baker Institute and co-director of the Middle East Energy Roundtable.