Business
Booked late, flown full: Travellers wait longer before buying
Three in four Qatar Airways passengers now book within 60 days of departure. Hamad al-Khater, the airline's Group Chief Executive, gave the figure in a Bloomberg Television interview in New York on 20 September, on the sidelines of the Qatar Economic Forum's UNGA edition.
The pattern extends across the industry. Since the regional conflict began at the end of February, travellers have waited longer before buying. Airspace closures, fuel prices and schedule changes have made people cautious about committing months ahead. They book once they are confident the trip will go ahead.
European airlines reported the same pattern in the spring. easyJet chief executive Kenton Jarvis said "the booking window has shortened" and pointed to strong demand in the month of travel. Turkish Airlines chair Murat Seker told investors that long-term visibility resembled the pandemic period. Barclays analyst Andrew Lobbenberg said European holidaymakers were booking late and airlines were cutting fares to prompt them.
Demand has held, especially in premium cabins. IATA recorded a global passenger load factor of 85.2% in July, and international demand outside the Middle East rose 1.5% year on year.
Middle East carriers filled 80.9% of seats, and IATA said the region's decline had eased after double-digit falls earlier in the year. Those are sound numbers for a peak month. The bookings arrived later in the cycle.
Premium cabins have performed best. Delta's premium revenue rose 17% in the June quarter, and in each of the first two quarters of 2026 its premium revenue equalled its economy revenue. American plans to increase premium seating by 50% by the end of the decade. United is refitting aircraft with fewer seats and more premium cabins.
Business travellers have always booked close to departure. Meetings, deals and board dates are set a few weeks out, and the ticket follows. Airlines with large premium cabins and strong corporate accounts were already selling a high share of their most valuable seats late. The wider market has moved towards their pattern, which leaves them best placed.
Revenue management tends to feel this most directly. Airline pricing systems typically use historical booking curves to forecast how many seats a flight should have sold at 180, 90 and 30 days before departure. When most bookings arrive in the last eight weeks, the early readings carry less information. A flight that looks weak three months out can be full a fortnight before departure.
Airlines have responded by releasing fewer seats at the lowest fares far in advance and holding more inventory for late, higher-paying passengers. Forecasters are leaning on live data such as search activity, competitor fares and corporate bookings. Market analysis reported by Business Insider in June noted that the traditional booking window was becoming a less reliable planning tool.
Network planning is harder. Schedules are fixed many months ahead, and new aircraft are in short supply, with manufacturer backlogs running for years. At eight weeks' notice, the practical option is to move the aircraft already in the fleet.
Lufthansa Group has cancelled about 20,000 flights through October, mostly on its least profitable European routes. Qatar Airways has concentrated capacity on its most profitable routes. In both cases, aircraft are going where late demand and yields are strongest.
Large hub carriers are well suited to this. A 777 or A350 can be moved between markets within days. A hub collects late bookings from dozens of cities and feeds them onto a single long-haul departure. The bigger the widebody fleet and network, the more options an airline has.
Late booking also affects pricing. Jet fuel is about $182 a barrel, roughly 90% above its level on 28 February, and Qatar Airways has so far held off passing the increase on to customers.
Some airlines have tried to pull bookings forward. easyJet pledged in May not to add fuel surcharges to packages already booked, and British Airways promised holiday customers that prices would not rise after payment. Passengers who buy in the last few weeks face fuller aircraft and fewer discounted fares. Part of the higher fuel cost will be recovered through those late fares, with no surcharge involved.
How long the shorter booking window lasts depends partly on the conflict. The pandemic offers a guide. Airlines introduced flexible fares in 2020, and many kept them because passengers continued to buy them. This year has given travellers another reason to wait before committing.
If they keep waiting, airlines will need forecasting, network and fleet plans designed around a shorter horizon. Carriers with strong premium products, flexible widebody fleets and large connecting hubs start from the strongest position.