Nearly 15mn barrels of crude a day moved through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. The Gulf's producers are now trying to work out how much of that they can move somewhere else — and how fast.
Disruption to shipping since the conflict began in late February has pushed a set of long-dormant pipeline plans back onto the table, according to a survey of official announcements and industry assessments.
Taken together, the schemes could eventually reroute as much as 11.5mn barrels per day (mbd) of the 13.26mbd that transits the strait once Iran's own exports are set aside.
That last qualification matters more than the headline figure. Iran shipped roughly 1.69mbd through Hormuz last year and is expected to keep doing so indefinitely, precisely because it controls the waterway.
Andrew Wilson of BRS Shipbrokers told AFP that Tehran will simply produce and ship as much as it can to China, and does not regard the chokepoint as its problem. The bypass programme, in other words, is an attempt by Iran's neighbours to remove themselves from a hostage situation — not to end it.
Saudi Arabia is furthest along, largely by accident of earlier planning. Its East-West Pipeline, running from Abqaiq near the Gulf coast to Yanbu on the Red Sea, carried around 2mbd before the war, but Aramco said in March last year it had lifted capacity to 7mbd. That leaves up to 5mbd of headroom available immediately — the single largest piece of usable slack in the region. Riyadh is weighing a further expansion of up to 2mbd, though the US-based Institute for Energy Research notes it is not yet clear whether that means upgrading the existing line or laying a parallel one. The completion is tipped for 2030 or 2031.
The UAE's answer is nearer to hand. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which carries crude from inland fields to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, was running at about 1.1mbd against a capacity of 1.8mbd.
A second line, fast-tracked in May, would run parallel before extending to the northern coast, capturing crude produced north of the strait. Abu Dhabi's media office expects it in service next year, doubling Fujairah's throughput.
Iraq is the wild card. The US State Department said in July that work was under way to revive the pipeline linking Iraqi fields to Syria's Mediterranean coast, with Washington assembling an international consortium to handle the technical and financial execution and an initial capacity of 2mbd.
There is no timetable, and the political and investment obstacles could stretch the schedule considerably. On paper it is the boldest fix; in practice it is the least bankable.
Kuwait and Bahrain have no bypass at all. Both have opened talks with Riyadh about plugging into the Saudi network, according to the IER.