While heads of government usually enter or exit office as a result of winning or losing an election, it is a curious feature of British politics that no prime minister since Edward Heath has seen their term in office begin and end with an electoral victory and defeat. Heath became Prime Minister after the Conservatives won the 1970 election and lost the job after the Conservatives failed to win a majority in the 1974 election. Since then, each prime minister has either come to office or left it mid-parliament, a streak that began when Harold Wilson handed over to Jim Callaghan in 1976, thirteen prime ministers ago.
Burnham entered 10 Downing Street last Monday promising to rewire the state and decentralise political and economic power in what he called the biggest shakeup in 40 years, a nod to the reforms of the Thatcher era in the 1980s that have held sway since. Time will tell whether the bold programme he outlined will breathe life into a Labour government that had drifted listlessly under Keir Starmer and still has three parliamentary years to run. Early opinion polls suggest that Labour has closed the gap to Reform UK to within a couple of points and that the Conservatives have also made noticeable gains in recent weeks.
Previous attempts to kickstart a flailing government by changing leader mid-term have a mixed record of success. After all, just as with football managers, the vacancy would not have arisen if the previous incumbent had been doing well and not been sacked. The most successful new start was John Major in 1990. By the time he succeeded Margaret Thatcher in November, the Conservatives had been behind in the polls for 18 months, but Major steadied the ship and won an unexpected victory in the 1992 election, helped by a Gulf War bounce after the swift military victory over Saddam Hussein shortly after he took office.
Boris Johnson also performed strongly after he replaced Theresa May in July 2019 albeit only after he called a snap general election in December to break through the Brexit logjam that had caused May so much political difficulty. Like Burnham, whose nine years as Mayor of Greater Manchester meant he was less associated with Starmer’s government in London, Johnson was able to fashion an image of an outsider capable of making a genuinely fresh start and avoiding blame for May’s inability to govern. Johnson won a large majority that saw him finally deliver on the promise to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union in January 2020, but the Covid-19 pandemic intervened almost immediately and ultimately played a key role in bringing him down over personal failings in the ‘Partygate’ affair.
Other prime ministers have struggled to define a message of change that distinguishes them from their predecessor, especially as they come from the same party. This was a challenge for Gordon Brown when he took over from Tony Blair in 2007 after ten years of serving as Blair’s right-hand man as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Blair and Brown famously fell out during the former’s long premiership but Brown’s attempt to start afresh was blown off course by the global financial crisis that began within months of his taking office. While Brown performed well in managing the fallout from the crash and playing a major role in coordinating international responses through the G-20 grouping he helped to create, he was unable to reverse Labour’s slide in favourability that led to electoral defeat in 2010.
David Cameron’s six years as Prime Minister seems unimaginable these days but his time in Downing Street came to an ignominious end in June 2016 when he stepped down when the Brexit referendum went against him. Theresa May immediately ran into trouble as parliament could not agree on the terms of British withdrawal from the European Union, and for several years Britain effectively became politically ungovernable. May’s dry, managerial style was ill-suited to the cut-and-thrust of Westminster politics, a failing she shared with Keir Starmer, whose hapless attempts to start afresh led critics to label him the Inspector Clouseau of British politics.
The next general election in Britain is not due until July 2029 although prime ministers can call early elections if they feel the political wind is in their favour. Here, again, the shadow of Theresa May’s decision to call a snap election in June 2017 looms large, as the Conservatives lost the majority that Cameron had secured in 2015 and had to reach a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland to remain in office. While an early election worked well for Johnson two years later, Burnham is unlikely to consider holding one unless there is clear evidence that Labour has opened up a clear lead over Reform UK.
Attention is therefore likely to focus heavily on the by-election in Clacton on 13 August triggered by Nigel Farage’s decision to resign and re-contest his seat. While Farage’s re-election is likely a given, since all the main parties have declined to field candidates in what they regard as an unnecessary and costly political stunt, certain clues, such as voter turnout and the number of votes cast for other candidates, will be studied closely. The fact that Farage’s highest profile competitor is Count Binface has already lent an air of slapstick unreality to the election, and memories of the ‘Boaty McBoatface’ victory in a competition to name a polar research vessel in 2016 are being revived in the annual ‘silly season’ of British politics.
- The writer is a leading scholar specialising in Gulf politics and international political economy, and a fellow at the Baker Institute and co-director of the Middle East Energy Roundtable.